相关论文: The effect of time distribution shape on simulated…

This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely…

Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…

In this study we extend the results of Kurtz (1970,1971) to show the weak convergence of epidemic processes that include explicit time dependence, specifically where the transmission parameter,$\beta(t)$, carries a time dependency. We first…

We present an algorithm which explores permutation symmetries to describe the time evolution of agent-based epidemic models. The main idea to improve computation times relies on restricting the stochastic process to one sector of the vector…

Real-world dynamical systems with retardation effects are described in general not by a single, precisely defined time delay, but by a range of delay times. An exact mapping onto a set of $N+1$ ordinary differential equations exists when…

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…

We study the effect of the connectivity pattern of complex networks on the propagation dynamics of epidemics. The growth time scale of outbreaks is inversely proportional to the network degree fluctuations, signaling that epidemics spread…

Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…

Covid-19 has caused hundred of thousands of deaths and an economic damage amounting to trillions of dollars, creating a desire for the rapid development of vaccine. Once available, vaccine is gradually produced, evoking the question on how…

The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…

Weight distribution largely impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper studies a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation…

We consider the scattering by a one-dimensional random potential and derive the probability distribution of the corresponding Wigner time delay. It is shown that the limiting distribution is the same for two different models and coincides…

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…

This paper presents a stochastic delayed differential model for rumor propagation during infodemic that incorporates human behavioral response, public skepticism and fact-checking mechanisms. A discrete time delay is introduced to model…

Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…

Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…

Joint modelling of longitudinal observations and event times continues to remain a topic of considerable interest in biomedical research. For example, in HIV studies, the longitudinal bio-marker such as CD4 cell count in a patient's blood…

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…

We extend our BDI (birth-death-immigration) process based stochastic model of an infectious disease to time-nonhomogeneous cases. First, we discuss the deterministic model, and derive the expected value of the infection process. Then as an…