相关论文: Likelihood-based inference for correlated diffusio…

We develop continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) approximation of one-dimensional diffusions with a lower sticky boundary. Approximate solutions to the action of the Feynman-Kac operator associated with a sticky diffusion and first passage…

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on third-order Langevin dynamics for sampling from distributions with log-concave and smooth densities. The higher-order dynamics allow for more flexible discretization schemes,…

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested…

We develop diffusion models for time-varying correlation using stochastic processes defined on the unit circle. Specifically, we study Brownian motion on the circle and the von Mises diffusion, and propose their use as continuous-time…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a flexible approach to approximate sampling from intractable probability distributions, with a rich theoretical foundation and comprising a wealth of exemplar algorithms. While the qualitative correctness…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference…

The smoothing distribution is the conditional distribution of the diffusion process in the space of trajectories given noisy observations made continuously in time. It is generally difficult to sample from this distribution. We use the…

We show that Lasso and Bayesian Lasso are very close when the sparsity is large and the noise is small. Then we propose to solve Bayesian Lasso using multivalued stochastic differential equation. We obtain three discretizations algorithms,…

Many analyses of multivariate data focus on evaluating the dependence between two sets of variables, rather than the dependence among individual variables within each set. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a classical data analysis…

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

We present a highly efficient proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology to perform Bayesian computation in imaging problems. Similarly to previous proximal Monte Carlo approaches, the proposed method is derived from an approximation of…

Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…

We discuss suitable classes of diffusion processes, for which functionals relevant to finance can be computed via Monte Carlo methods. In particular, we construct exact simulation schemes for processes from this class. However, should the…

Cholesky factorization is a widely used method for solving linear systems involving symmetric, positive-definite matrices, and can be an attractive choice in applications where a high degree of numerical stability is needed. One such…

Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…

In many computational problems, using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be prohibitively time-consuming. We propose MCMC-Net, a simple yet efficient way to accelerate MCMC via neural networks. The key idea of our approach is to…