相关论文: Nonparametric inference for ergodic, stationary ti…
In this work a method for statistical analysis of time series is proposed, which is used to obtain solutions to some classical problems of mathematical statistics under the only assumption that the process generating the data is stationary…
The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of…
Let $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}$ be a stationary ergodic time series with $(X,Y)$ values in the product space $\R^d\bigotimes \R .$ This study offers what is believed to be the first strongly consistent (with respect to pointwise, least-squares, and…
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…
Let $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ be a stationary real-valued time series with unknown distribution. Our goal is to estimate the conditional expectation of $X_{n+1}$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ in a strongly consistent way.…
The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…
Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…
We proposed a learning algorithm for nonparametric estimation and on-line prediction for general stationary ergodic sources. We prepare histograms each of which estimates the probability as a finite distribution, and mixture them with…
We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a…
The problem of filtering of finite-alphabet stationary ergodic time series is considered. A method for constructing a confidence set for the (unknown) signal is proposed, such that the resulting set has the following properties: First, it…
In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…
Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…
We consider the problem of estimating the context tree of a stationary ergodic process with finite alphabet without imposing additional conditions on the process. As a starting point we introduce a Hamming metric in the space of irreducible…
The forward estimation problem for stationary and ergodic time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ taking values from a finite alphabet ${\cal X}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=x$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$…
The conditional distribution of the next outcome given the infinite past of a stationary process can be inferred from finite but growing segments of the past. Several schemes are known for constructing pointwise consistent estimates, but…
Stationarity is a very general, qualitative assumption, that can be assessed on the basis of application specifics. It is thus a rather attractive assumption to base statistical analysis on, especially for problems for which less general…
We address the problem of nonparametric estimation of characteristics for stationary and ergodic time series. We consider finite-alphabet time series and real-valued ones and the following four problems: i) estimation of the (limiting)…
Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…
We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and model selection techniques. The paper generalises and extends…
This brief pedagogical note re-proves a simple theorem on the convergence, in $L_2$ and in probability, of time averages of non-stationary time series to the mean of expectation values. The basic condition is that the sum of covariances…