相关论文: Nonparametric inference for ergodic, stationary ti…

We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if…

We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and an additive deterministic component consisting of a…

This article considers a nonparametric method for detecting change points in non-stationary time series. The proposed method will divide the time series into several segments so that between two adjacent segments, the normalized spectral…

This paper reports on the application to field measurements of time series methods developed on the basis of the theory of deterministic chaos. The major difficulties are pointed out that arise when the data cannot be assumed to be purely…

We suggest a new approach to hypothesis testing for ergodic and stationary processes. In contrast to standard methods, the suggested approach gives a possibility to make tests, based on any lossless data compression method even if the…

In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

The well established procedure of constructing phenomenological ensemble from a single long time series is investigated. It is determined that a time series generated by a simple Uhlenbeck-Ornstein Langevin equation is mean ergodic. However…

In a previous paper, using ergodic theory, Lo [1] derived a simple definite integral that provided an estimate of the view periods of ground stations to satellites. This assumes the satellites are in circular orbits with non-repeating…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

We formulate nonparametric and semiparametric hypothesis testing of multivariate stationary linear time series in a unified fashion and propose new test statistics based on estimators of the spectral density matrix. The limiting…

Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

A new general procedure for a priori selection of more predictable events from a time series of observed variable is proposed. The procedure is applicable to time series which contains different types of events that feature significantly…

A time series represents a set of observations collected over time. Typically, these observations are captured with a uniform sampling frequency (e.g. daily). When data points are observed in uneven time intervals the time series is…

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions…

We introduce probabilistic neural networks that describe unsupervised synchronous learning on an atomic Hardy space and space of bounded real analytic functions, respectively. For a stationary ergodic vector process, we prove that the…

We deal here with the issue of determinism versus randomness in time series. One wishes to identify their relative importance in a given time series. To this end we extend i) the use of ordinal patterns-based probability distribution…