相关论文: Limitations on intermittent forecasting

We propose a new abstract formalism for probabilistic timed systems, Parametric Interval Probabilistic Timed Automata, based on an extension of Parametric Timed Automata and Interval Markov Chains. In this context, we consider the…

We derive a finite-sample probabilistic bound on the parameter estimation error of a system identification algorithm for Linear Switched Systems. The algorithm estimates Markov parameters from a single trajectory and applies a variant of…

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

The purpose of this paper is to study the time average behavior of Markov chains with transition probabilities being kernels of completely continuous operators, and therefore to provide a sufficient condition for a class of Markov chains…

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…

We consider backward problems for semilinear coupled parabolic systems in bounded domains. We prove conditional stability estimates for linear and semilinear systems of strongly coupled parabolic equations involving general semilinearities.…

We consider the problem of model selection in Gaussian Markov fields in the sample deficient scenario. In many practically important cases, the underlying networks are embedded into Euclidean spaces. Using the natural geometric structure,…

Exponential inequalities are main tools in machine learning theory. To prove exponential inequalities for non i.i.d random variables allows to extend many learning techniques to these variables. Indeed, much work has been done both on…

Through this paper we analyze the ergodic properties of continuous time Markov chains with values on the one-dimensional spin lattice 1,...,d}^N (also known as the Bernoulli space). Initially, we consider as the infinitesimal generator the…

We produce the first example of bounding total variation distance to stationarity and estimating mixing times via orthogonal polynomials diagonalization of discrete reversible Markov chains, the Karlin-McGregor approach.

Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its…

For an ergodic Markov chain $\{X(t)\}$ on $\Bbb N$, with a stationary distribution $\pi$, let $T_n>0$ denote a hitting time for $[n]^c$, and let $X_n=X(T_n)$. Around 2005 Guy Louchard popularized a conjecture that, for $n\to \infty$, $T_n$…

Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using…

This paper studies Hoeffding's inequality for Markov chains under the generalized concentrability condition defined via integral probability metric (IPM). The generalized concentrability condition establishes a framework that interpolates…

We study the Markov chain $x_{n+1}=ax_n+b_n$ on a finite field $\mathbb{F}_p$, where $a \in \mathbb{F}_p$ is fixed and $b_n$ are independent and identically distributed random variables in $\mathbb{F}_p$. Conditionally on the Riemann…

Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…

A general setting for nested subdivisions of a bounded real set into intervals defining the digits $X_1,X_2,...$ of a random variable $X$ with a probability density function $f$ is considered. Under the weak condition that $f$ is almost…

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…