相关论文: Wrong Priors

The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the…

The likelihood principle makes strong claims about the nature of statistical evidence but is controversial. Its claims are undermined by the existence of several examples that are assumed to show that it allows, with unity probability,…

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

The problem of prediction consists in forecasting the conditional distribution of the next outcome given the past. Assume that the source generating the data is such that there is a stationary ergodic predictor whose error converges to zero…

This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in…

One of the greatest difficulties encountered by all in their first proof intensive class is subtly assuming an unproven fact in a proof. The purpose of this note is to describe a specific instance where this can occur, namely in results…

We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…

The derivation of the quantum retrodictive probability formula involves an error, an ambiguity. The end result is correct because this error appears twice, in such a way as to cancel itself. In addition, however, the usual expression for…

Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of…

In this work we generalize standard Decision Theory by assuming that two outcomes can also be incomparable. Two motivating scenarios show how incomparability may be helpful to represent those situations where, due to lack of information,…

The choice of sentence encoder architecture reflects assumptions about how a sentence's meaning is composed from its constituent words. We examine the contribution of these architectures by holding them randomly initialised and fixed,…

Binary classifiers trained on a certain proportion of positive items introduce a bias when applied to data sets with different proportions of positive items. Most solutions for dealing with this issue assume that some information on the…

The ``impossibility theorem'' -- which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature -- asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two…

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Confusion over the predicativist conception of well-ordering pervades the literature and is responsible for widespread fundamental misconceptions about the nature of predicative reasoning. This short note aims to explain the principal…

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

We learn mathematics subjectively and must apply it objectively. But sometimes, we apply it subjectively by using wrong intuitions which may be elusive to our eyes. The aim of this note is to disclose the secretes of two kinds of these…

This article discusses a number of incorrect statements appearing in textbooks on data analysis, machine learning, or computational methods; the common theme in all these cases is the relevance and application of statistics to the study of…

When a series of measurements is performed with increasingly coarse (or increasingly fine) precision, consecutive observations seem to be erratically distributed at first, and then organize themselves into cycles and patterns. The patterns,…

Inverse problems, where in broad sense the task is to learn from the noisy response about some unknown function, usually represented as the argument of some known functional form, has received wide attention in the general scientific…