相关论文: Confidence distribution (CD) -- distribution estim…

The median absolute deviation (MAD) is a robust measure of scale that is simple to implement and easy to interpret. Motivated by this, we introduce interval estimators of the MAD to make reliable inferences for dispersion for a single…

Turing's estimator allows one to estimate the probabilities of outcomes that either do not appear or only rarely appear in a given random sample. We perform a simulation study to understand the finite sample performance of several related…

The fiducial is not unique in general, but we prove that in a restricted class of models it is uniquely determined by the sampling distribution of the data. It depends in particular not on the choice of a data generating model. The…

Uncertainty quantification is critical in scientific inverse problems to distinguish identifiable parameters from those that remain ambiguous given available measurements. The Conditional Diffusion Model-based Inverse Problem Solver (CDI)…

The empirical probability density function for the conditional distribution of the true value of Poisson distribution parameter on one measurement is constructed by computer experiment. The analysis of the obtained distributions confirms…

Kernel density estimation is a widely used nonparametric approach to estimate an unknown distribution. Recent work in Bayesian predictive inference has considered stochastic processes formed by specifying the predictive distribution for the…

In this article, a discrete analogue of continuous Teissier distribution is presented. Its several important distributional characteristics have been derived. The estimation of the unknown parameter has been done using the method of maximum…

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

Nonparametric series regression often involves specification search over the tuning parameter, i.e., evaluating estimates and confidence intervals with a different number of series terms. This paper develops pointwise and uniform inferences…

Deterministic mathematical models, such as those specified via differential equations, are a powerful tool to communicate scientific insight. However, such models are necessarily simplified descriptions of the real world. Generalised…

We formalize the idea of probability distributions that lead to reliable predictions about some, but not all aspects of a domain. The resulting notion of `safety' provides a fresh perspective on foundational issues in statistics, providing…

We study frequentist confidence intervals based on graphical profile likelihoods (Wilks' theorem, likelihood integration), and the Feldman-Cousins (FC) prescription, a generalisation of the Neyman belt construction, in a setting with…

We consider a problem in parametric estimation: given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution, we want to estimate which distribution, from a given one-parameter family, produced the data. Following Schulman and Vazirani, we evaluate an…

We suggest how to construct joint confidence distributions for several parameters and apply these ideas to an autoregressive process of general order. The implied non informative prior for the parameters, i.e. the ratio between the…

A multi-fidelity simulator is a numerical model, in which one of the inputs controls a trade-off between the realism and the computational cost of the simulation. Our goal is to estimate the probability of exceeding a given threshold on a…

Confidence sets based on sparse estimators are shown to be large compared to more standard confidence sets, demonstrating that sparsity of an estimator comes at a substantial price in terms of the quality of the estimator. The results are…

In survey analysis, the estimation of the cumulative distribution function (cdf) is of great interest: it allows for instance to derive quantiles estimators or other non linear parameters derived from the cdf. We consider the case where the…

The general relationship between an arbitrary frequency distribution and the expectation value of the frequency distributions of its samples is esablished. A set of combinations of expectation values whose value does not in general depend…

The estimation of the potential impact fraction (including the population attributable fraction) with continuous exposure data frequently relies on strong distributional assumptions. However, these assumptions are often violated if the…

A continuous approximation for the results of [1] is obtained. In this approximation the energy distribution is represented in the form of the product of the Gibbs factor and superstatistics factor. The mutual weights of the factors are…