相关论文: Confidence distribution (CD) -- distribution estim…

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Forward simulation-based uncertainty quantification that studies the distribution of quantities of interest (QoI) is a crucial component for computationally robust engineering design and prediction. There is a large body of literature…

This paper develops new methodology, together with related theories, for combining information from independent studies through confidence distributions. A formal definition of a confidence distribution and its asymptotic counterpart (i.e.,…

Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing…

We consider the problem of deriving uniform confidence bands for the mean of a monotonic stochastic process, such as the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a random variable, based on a sequence of i.i.d.~observations. Our approach…

The Poisson probability distribution is frequently encountered in physical science measurements. In spite of the simplicity and familiarity of this distribution, there is considerable confusion among physicists concerning the description of…

In many statistical problems, several estimators are usually available for interval estimation of a parameter of interest, and hence, the selection of an appropriate estimator is important. The criterion for a good estimator is to have a…

We consider the problem of late multi-modal fusion for discriminative learning. Motivated by noisy, multi-source domains that require understanding the reliability of each data source, we explore the notion of credibility in the context of…

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

The notion of probability density for a random function is not as straightforward as in finite-dimensional cases. While a probability density function generally does not exist for functional data, we show that it is possible to develop the…

Belief functions are a powerful and popular framework for the mathematical characterisation of uncertainty, in particular in situations in which lack of data renders learning a probability distribution for the problem impractical. The first…

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Estimating the empirical distribution of a scalar-valued data set is a basic and fundamental task. In this paper, we tackle the problem of estimating an empirical distribution in a setting with two challenging features. First, the algorithm…

Categorical data are often observed as counts resulting from a fixed number of trials in which each trial consists of making one selection from a prespecified set of categories. The multinomial distribution serves as a standard model for…

This paper considers the problem of estimating the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of a random variable using data quantized by uniform and non-uniform quantizers. A simple estimator is proposed based on…

Many existing approaches for estimating parameters in settings with distributional shifts operate under an invariance assumption. For example, under covariate shift, it is assumed that $p(y|x)$ remains invariant. We refer to such…

In the subjective Bayesian approach uncertainty is described by a prior distribution chosen by the statistician. Fuzzy set theory is another way of representing uncertainty. Here we give a decision theoretic approach which allows a Bayesian…

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

This paper focuses on nonparametric statistical inference of the hazard rate function of discrete distributions based on $\delta$-record data. We derive the explicit expression of the maximum likelihood estimator and determine its exact…