相关论文: Confidence distribution (CD) -- distribution estim…

When using the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) for assessing and ranking candidate models with respect to how well they do for a given estimation task, it is customary to produce a so-called FIC plot. This plot has the different point…

There has long been an impression that reliabilism implies externalism and that frequentist statistics, due to its reliabilist nature, is inherently externalist. I argue, however, that frequentist statistics can plausibly be understood as a…

Confidence nets, that is, collections of confidence intervals that fill out the parameter space and whose exact parameter coverage can be computed, are familiar in nonparametric statistics. Here, the distributional assumptions are based on…

Probabilistic graphical models are a powerful concept for modeling high-dimensional distributions. Besides modeling distributions, probabilistic graphical models also provide an elegant framework for performing statistical inference;…

There are several estimators of conditional probability from observed frequencies of features. In this paper, we propose using the lower limit of confidence interval on posterior distribution determined by the observed frequencies to…

Possible parameter values in a random sampling model are shown by definition to have uniform base-rate prior probabilities. This allows a frequentist posterior probability distribution to be calculated for such possible parameter values…

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution is a natural two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution which has received some attention in the statistics literature in recent years by offering flexible generalisations of some…

Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are a stream of independent, identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\mu$. This work presents a new estimate $\mu_k$ for $\mu$ with the property that the distribution of the relative error…

We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about…

In Bayesian inference, an unknown measurement uncertainty is often quantified in terms of a Gamma distributed precision parameter, which is impractical when prior information on the standard deviation of the measurement uncertainty shall be…

A recent paper presents the "false confidence theorem" (FCT) which has potentially broad implications for statistical inference using Bayesian posterior uncertainty. This theorem says that with arbitrarily large (sampling/frequentist)…

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make…

Confidence interval of mean is often used when quoting statistics. The same rigor is often missing when quoting percentiles and tolerance or percentile intervals. This article derives the expression for confidence in percentiles of a sample…

A generalization of a distribution increases the flexibility particularly in studying of a phenomenon and its properties. Many generalizations of continuous univariate distributions are available in literature. In this study, an…

Based on a progressively type-II censored sample from the exponential distribution with unknown location and scale parameter, confidence bands are proposed for the underlying distribution function by using confidence regions for the…

In this paper, inference for the parametric component of a semiparametric model based on sampling from the posterior profile distribution is thoroughly investigated from the frequentist viewpoint. The higher-order validity of the profile…

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

The current definition of a conditional probability distribution enables one to update probabilities only on the basis of stochastic information. This paper provides a definition for conditional probability distributions with non-stochastic…

Statistical system models provide the basis for the examination of various sorts of distributions. Classification distributions are a very common and versatile form of statistics in e.g. real economic, social, and IT systems. The…

In Neyman's original formulation, a 1-alpha confidence interval procedure is justified by its long-run coverage properties, and a single realized interval is to be described only by the slogan that it either covers the parameter or it does…