经济学

This paper shows that diagnostic expectations (DE) and rational expectations (RE) are not observationally equivalent in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using the frequency-domain framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2012,…

I use a novel approach to compare information in several classes of moral hazard problems: implementability, cost under risk neutrality and limited liability, and cost facing an agent with a general preference for money. Incentives in moral…

Emerging economies, particularly the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and T\"urkiye), are gaining influence in global stock markets, although they remain susceptible to the economic conditions of developed countries like the G7…

In many reserve-based affirmative action systems, admission cutoffs are publicly disclosed to enable students to verify whether reserved seats are correctly assigned. We introduce a verifiability criterion: each student must be able to…

Consumer heterogeneity in revealed-preference data is larger than bilateral rationality tests can reveal. We construct a continuous nonparametric metric of this hidden heterogeneity by repeatedly subsampling choices, partitioning consumers…

How does competition in markets for information affect the creation and division of surplus? We study this question in a search environment in which an agent searches sequentially for a high-quality good and learns about the quality of…

In panel predictive regressions with persistent covariates, coexistence of the Nickell bias and the Stambaugh bias imposes challenges for estimation and hypothesis testing. This paper introduces an innovative estimator, the Double IVX…

This paper introduces an economic framework to assess optimal longevity risk transfers between institutions, focusing on the interactions between a buyer exposed to long-term longevity risk and a seller offering longevity protection. While…

We study how TikTok affects demand for music on paid streaming platforms. We use Universal Music Group's (UMG) global withdrawal of its catalog from TikTok as a quasi-natural experiment. Recent work using this setting reaches mixed…

In economic program evaluation, it is common to obtain panel data in which outcomes are indicators that an individual has reached an absorbing state. For example, they may indicate whether an individual has exited a period of unemployment,…

We propose a generalization of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) built on a simple premise: some actions are more focal than others. In our model, which we call the Focal Quantal Response Equilibrium (Focal QRE), each player plays a…

We explore heterogeneous prices as a source of heterogeneous or stochastic demand. Heterogeneous prices could arise either because there is actual price variation among consumers or because consumers (mis)perceive prices differently. Our…

This paper establishes non-asymptotic convergence of the cutoffs in Random serial dictatorship in an environment with many students, many schools, and arbitrary student preferences. Convergence is shown to hold when the number of schools,…

Online advertising platforms host hundreds of thousands of A/B tests, but the platform's delivery algorithm routes each creative to the audience it predicts will engage. Every two-arm test therefore conflates the creative's effect with the…

We study consumer demand in large-scale retail settings with many products, multiple categories and repeated purchase behavior. While inertia and brand loyalty are well documented, existing discrete choice models typically focus on single…

Decision support methods from operations research are widely used to support complex planning decisions. Within the energy sector, energy system models (ESMs) applying modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) generate large sets of…

We study how individuals trade off outcome ("what") and process ("how") utility in high-stakes strategic decisions, namely professional tennis. Using optimality conditions and the second-service rule, we derive a sufficient condition for…

Investment in renewable electricity generation is highly capital intensive and therefore strongly dependent on financing conditions. In Europe, much of this investment has occurred under public support schemes that resemble long-term public…

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to transform work, but less is known about how firms reorganize labor demand as the technology diffuses. Existing research has largely focused on which occupations are exposed to AI or…

Modern economies depend critically on high-voltage power transmission networks. Yet this infrastructure is routinely disrupted by natural hazards ranging from earthquakes and floods to tornadoes and geomagnetic storms. Risk assessments have…