统计金融
We demonstrate that the lowest possible price change (tick-size) has a large impact on the structure of financial return distributions. It induces a microstructure as well as it can alter the tail behavior. On small return intervals, the…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: $dX_t=a_tdt+\sigma_tdW_t$, where $X$ denotes the log-price and $\sigma$ is a c\`adl\`ag semi-martingale. In the…
We propose a combination of cluster analysis and stochastic process analysis to characterize high-dimensional complex dynamical systems by few dominating variables. As an example, stock market data are analyzed for which the dynamical…
We introduce two types of ordinal pattern dependence between time series. Positive (resp. negative) ordinal pattern dependence can be seen as a non-paramatric and in particular non-linear counterpart to positive (resp. negative)…
Stock exchanges are considered major players in financial sectors of many countries. Most Stockbrokers, who execute stock trade, use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in trying to predict stock prices, so as to advise clients.…
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
Oil is perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets. To fully understand this potential, we propose a new empirical methodology that combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data and…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil.…
This paper studies the empirical tracking performance of leveraged ETFs on gold, and their price relationships with gold spot and futures. For tracking the gold spot, we find that our optimized portfolios with short-term gold futures are…
Recent news cast doubts on London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) integrity. Given its economic importance and the delay with which authorities realize about this situation, we aim to find an objective method in order to detect departures in…
In this paper we develop a new form of agent-based model for limit order books based on heterogeneous trading agents, whose motivations are liquidity driven. These agents are abstractions of real market participants, expressed in a…
The complex, time-dependent statistical structures observed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a typical trading day are modeled with Lorentzian functions. The resonant-like structures are characterized by the values of the basic ratio:…
We present a modified version of the non parametric Hawkes kernel estimation procedure studied in arXiv:1401.0903 that is adapted to slowly decreasing kernels. We show on numerical simulations involving a reasonable number of events that…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
We present some stylized facts exhibited by the time series of returns of the Mexican Stock Exchange Index (IPC) and compare them to a sample of both developed (USA, UK and Japan) and emerging markets (Brazil and India). The period of study…
We introduce two new estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting -- the cross-periodogram and local $X$-Whittle estimators -- as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the…
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real…
We extend existing models in the financial literature by introducing a cluster-derived canonical vine (CDCV) copula model for capturing high dimensional dependence between financial time series. This model utilises a simplified…
The total value of domestic market capitalization of the Mexican Stock Exchange was calculated at 520 billion of dollars by the end of November 2013. To manage this system and make optimum capital investments, its dynamics needs to be…