统计金融
In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or…
This paper looks into the analysis of the long-range auto-correlations and cross-correlations in bond market. Based on Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, empirical results present a clear evidence of long-range persistence that exists…
We analyze the time series of the power loads of the 35 separated countries publicly sharing hourly data through ENTSO-E platform for more than 5 years. We apply the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis for the demonstration of the…
The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time $t$ is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like $t^{1/2}$. However, processes where the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic…
We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes…
Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and…
Based on a recently proposed $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient $\rho_q$, we generalize the concept of minimum spanning tree (MST) by introducing a family of $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MST) that are…
Designing efficient and robust algorithms for accurate prediction of stock market prices is one of the most exciting challenges in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. With the exponential rate of development and evolution of…
We model non-stationary volume-price distributions with a log-normal distribution and collect the time series of its two parameters. The time series of the two parameters are shown to be stationary and Markov-like and consequently can be…
Bond prices are a reflection of extremely complex market interactions and policies, making prediction of future prices difficult. This task becomes even more challenging due to the dearth of relevant information, and accuracy is not the…
The majority of stylized facts of financial time series and several Value-at-Risk measures are modeled via univariate or multivariate GARCH processes. It is not rare that advanced GARCH models fail to converge for computational reasons, and…
We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate…
In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility…
We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.…
For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…
Based on the order flow data of a stock and its warrant, the immediate price impacts of market orders are estimated by two competitive models, the power-law model (PL model) and the logarithmic model (LG model). We find that the PL model is…
Mutually interacting components form complex systems and the outputs of these components are usually long-range cross-correlated. Using wavelet leaders, we propose a method of characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range…
This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of oil market during the last three decades, and examines changes in informational efficiency with major geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, financial crisis and other important…
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. This paper proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the…