种群与进化
A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virus spread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations, medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus possible…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
Contemporary Niche Theory is a useful framework for understanding how organisms interact with each other and with their shared environment. Its graphical representation, popularized by Tilman's Resource Ratio Hypothesis, facilitates the…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…
The Richards family models comprise a well-known set of models with useful parameters to describe several aspects of disease outbreaks. Some of these models have been used to study the current Covid-19 pandemic. However, there seems to be…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a…
Mathematical modelers have long known of a "rule of thumb" referred to as the Linear Chain Trick (LCT; aka the Gamma Chain Trick): a technique used to construct mean field ODE models from continuous-time stochastic state transition models…
The benefits, both in terms of productivity and public health, are investigated for different levels of engagement with the test, trace and isolate procedures in the context of a pandemic in which there is little or no herd immunity. Simple…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has necessitated mitigation efforts around the world. We use only reported deaths in the two weeks after the first death to determine infection parameters, in order to make predictions of hidden variables such as the…
How should dispersal strategies be chosen to increase the likelihood of survival of a species? We obtain the answer for the spatially extended versions of three well-known models of two competing species with unequal diffusivities. Though…
A Profile Mixture Model is a model of protein evolution, describing sequence data in which sites are assumed to follow many related substitution processes on a single evolutionary tree. The processes depend in part on different amino acid…
Objective: To make an estimate of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19 in the non-violent mortality of Peru, controlling for the effect of quarantine. Methods: Analysis of longitudinal data from the departments of Peru using official public…
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The…
Apis mellifera plays a crucial role as pollinator of the majority of crops linked to food production and thus its presence is currently fundamental to our health and survival. The composition and configuration of the landscape in which Apis…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a continuously devastating public health and the world economy. One of the major challenges in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak is its asymptomatic infection and transmission, which are elusive and…
B cell receptor sequences diversify through mutations introduced by purpose-built cellular machinery. A recent paper has concluded that a "templated mutagenesis" process is a major contributor to somatic hypermutation, and therefore…
In many biological systems, chemical reactions or changes in a physical state are assumed to occur instantaneously. For describing the dynamics of those systems, Markov models that require exponentially distributed inter-event times have…
A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a…
Bacteria evolve resistance to antibiotics by a multitude of mechanisms. A central, yet unsolved question is how resistance evolution affects cell growth at different drug levels. Here we develop a fitness model that predicts growth rates of…
Since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, numerous forecasting models have been proposed to project the trajectory of coronavirus infection cases. We propose a new discrete-time Markov chain transition matrix model that…