种群与进化
Countries highly exposed to incoming traffic from China were expected to be at the highest risk of COVID-19 spread. However, COVID-19 case numbers (infection levels) are negatively correlated with incoming traffic-level. Moreover, infection…
The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many ``structured models'' capture aspects of the contact structure through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in…
The infectivity profile of an individual with COVID-19 is attributed to the paper Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 by He et al., published in Nature Medicine in April 2020. However, the analysis within…
We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing in mitigating or suppressing epidemic outbreaks, in combination with or as an alternative to quarantines and global lockdowns. We study these intervention methods on a network-based SEIR…
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…
In this paper, we investigate the ongoing dynamics of COVID-19 in India after its emergence in Wuhan, China in December 2019. We discuss the effect of nationwide lockdown implemented in India on March 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
One of the main challenges of the measures against the COVID-19 epidemic is to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak without increasing without control its timescale. We investigate this problem using the SIR model for the epidemic…
In this letter, we mainly consider an MSM (men have sex with men) network to analysis how monogamy behavior can influence the transmission of HIV. By calculating and analyzing the basic reproductive number of that network, we find the…
Natural environments can present diverse challenges, but some genotypes remain fit across many environments. Such `generalists' can be hard to evolve, out-competed by specialists fitter in any particular environment. Here, inspired by the…
Bovine tuberculosis, a disease that affects cattle and badgers in Ireland, was studied via stochastic epidemic modeling using incidence data from the Four Area Project (Griffin et al., 2005). The Four Area Project was a large scale field…
The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) incidence in India is currently experiencing exponential rise but with apparent spatial variation in growth rate and doubling time rate. We classify the states into five clusters with low to the high-risk…
Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with…
Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…
COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, such as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a curative treatment or vaccine against COVID-19, have…
Chirality in shape and motility can evolve rapidly in microbes and cancer cells. To determine how chirality affects cell fitness, we developed a model of chiral growth in compact aggregates such as microbial colonies and solid tumors. Our…
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
On June 24th, Governor Cooper announced that North Carolina will not be moving into Phase 3 of its reopening process at least until July 17th. Given the recent increases in daily positive cases and hospitalizations, this decision was not…
Redlining is the discriminatory practice whereby institutions avoided investment in certain neighborhoods due to their demographics. Here we explore the lasting impacts of redlining on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC). Using…