种群与进化
The generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) equations model the microbiome as a collection of interacting ecological species. Here we use a particular experimentally-derived gLV model of C. difficile infection (CDI) as a case study to generate…
To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…
COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…
A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a public health problem once according to the World Health Organization up to June 10th, 2020, more than 7.1 million people were infected, and more than 400 thousand have died worldwide. In the…
Populations are made up of an integer number of individuals and are subject to stochastic birth-death processes whose rates may vary in time. Useful quantities, like the chance of ultimate fixation, satisfy an appropriate difference…
Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is…
Extending the previous 2-gender dioecious diploid gene-mating evolution model [arXiv:1410.3456], we attempt to answer "whether the Hardy-Weinberg global stability and the exact analytic dynamical solutions can be found in the generalized…
Fundamental properties of macroscopic gene-mating dynamic evolutionary systems are investigated. We focus on a single locus, any number of alleles in a two-gender dioecious population, for a large class of systems within population…
Punctuated equilibrium is a mode of evolution in which phenetic change occurs in rapid bursts that are separated by much longer intervals of stasis during which mutations accumulate but no major phenotypic change occurs. Punctuated…
COVID-19, a viral respiratory pandemic, has rapidly spread throughout the globe. Large scale and rapid testing of the population is required to contain the disease, but such testing is prohibitive in terms of resources, cost and time.…
Although extensive behavioral changes often exist between closely related animal species, our understanding of the genetic basis underlying the evolution of behavior has remained limited. Here, we propose a new framework to study behavioral…
In this paper, we formulate a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects, considering the contagion development in Brazil.…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
A deterministic multi-stage malaria model with a non-therapeutic control measure, the use of mosquito bednet is formulated and analyzed. The model basic reproduction number is derived, and analytical results show that the models equilibria…
Phylogenetics uses alignments of molecular sequence data to learn about evolutionary trees. Substitutions in sequences are modelled through a continuous-time Markov process, characterised by an instantaneous rate matrix, which standard…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
We develop an agent-based model of disease transmission in remote communities in Western Australia. Despite extreme isolation, we show that the movement of people amongst a large number of small but isolated communities has the effect of…
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of…
Background: Wuhan, China was the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of current study is to understand the infection transmission dynamics before intervention measures were taken. Methods: Data and key events were searched through…