种群与进化
The multi-population replicator dynamics (RD) can be considered a dynamic approach to the study of multi-player games, where it was shown to be related to Cross' learning, as well as of systems of coevolving populations. However, not all of…
Natural microbial communities contain hundreds to thousands of interacting species. For this reason, computational simulations are playing an increasingly important role in microbial ecology. In this manuscript, we present a new…
Non-uniform rates of morphological evolution and evolutionary increases in organismal complexity, captured in metaphors like "adaptive zones", "punctuated equilibrium" and "blunderbuss patterns", require more elaborate explanations than a…
Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current…
Different evolutionary models are known to make disparate predictions for the success of an invading mutant in some situations. For example, some evolutionary mechanics lead to amplification of selection in structured populations, while…
With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the…
The classical idea of evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) modeling animal behavior does not involve any spatial dependence. We considered a spatial Hawk-Dove game played by animals in a patchy environment with wrap around boundaries. We…
Ecological spatial patterns reflect the underlying processes that shape the structure of species and communities. Mechanisms like inter and intra species competition, dispersal and host-pathogen interactions are believed to act over a wide…
Ecological systems, as is often noted, are complex. Equally notable is the generalization that complex systems tend to be oscillatory, whether Huygens simple patterns of pendulum entrainment or the twisted chaotic orbits of Lorenz…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
The effect of masking the general population on a COVID-19 epidemic is estimated by computer simulation using two separate state-of-the-art web-based softwares, one of them calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions addressed are…
The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the defying global health crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be…
Originating in Wuhan, the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has astonished health-care systems across globe due to its rapid and simultaneous spread to the neighboring and distantly located countries. To…
COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then increased rapidly with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. The…
In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic. In the absence of preventive medicine or a ready to use vaccine, mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights…
Covid-19 has caused hundred of thousands of deaths and an economic damage amounting to trillions of dollars, creating a desire for the rapid development of vaccine. Once available, vaccine is gradually produced, evoking the question on how…
We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…