大气与海洋物理
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting…
Deep-learning (DL) weather prediction models offer some notable advantages over traditional physics-based models, including auto-differentiability and low computational cost, enabling detailed diagnostics of forecast errors. Using our…
Convection initiation (CI) nowcasting remains a challenging problem for both numerical weather prediction models and existing nowcasting algorithms. In this study, object-based probabilistic deep learning models are developed to predict CI…
Climate sensitivity has remained stubbornly uncertain since the Charney Report was published some 45 years ago. Two factors in future climate projections could alter this dilemma: (i) an increased ratio of CO$_2$ forcing relative to aerosol…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…
The growing resolution and volume of climate data from remote sensing and simulations pose significant storage, processing, and computational challenges. Traditional compression or subsampling methods often compromise data fidelity,…
Reliable dynamic sea level forecasts are hindered by numerous sources of uncertainty on daily-to-seasonal timescales (1-180 days) due to atmospheric boundary conditions and internal ocean variability. Studies have demonstrated that certain…
The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and top-of-atmosphere radiation can be estimated…
Submesoscale currents in the ocean's mixed layer (ML), consisting of fronts, eddies, and filaments, are characterized by order one Rossby (Ro) and Richardson (Ri) numbers. These currents play a crucial role in mediating vertical exchange…
Supercells, characterized by their deep, persistent mesocyclones, are among the most severe convective weather systems, often associated with large hail, damaging winds, and significant societal impacts. Accurately simulating these events…
Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…
With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data.…
Wind-forced near-inertial waves (NIWs) propagate through a sea of mesoscale eddies, which can fundamentally alter their evolution. The nature of this NIW--mesoscale interaction depends on how dispersive the waves are. For weakly dispersive…
Monin Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) has long served as the basis for parameterizations of turbulence exchange between the surface and the atmospheric boundary layer in models for weather and climate prediction. Decades of research,…
Ocean mesoscale variability, a key component of the climate system, influences ocean circulation and heat, gas, carbon and nutrient distribution. Trends on Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE), a metric measuring its intensity, are investigated using…
This article analyzes the characteristics of the rainy season and extreme temperatures recorded in the state of Jalisco, Mexico, during 2024. Using ERA5 and CHIRPS reanalysis data and observations from thirteen meteorological stations,…
Snow cover plays a critical yet often underrepresented role in shaping the thermodynamic behavior of Antarctic sea ice. In this study, we investigate the seasonal variability of snow distribution and its impact on surface albedo and energy…
Urban environments in hot-arid regions are increasingly challenged by rising temperatures, rapid urban expansion, and reliance on energy intensive mechanical cooling systems. This study presents a systematic review of peer reviewed…
Water vapour is highly subsaturated in much of the Earth's atmosphere. This has important consequences for water vapour feedback, and also for general phenomena such as the runaway greenhouse. In this chapter, we discuss the processes that…