大气与海洋物理
Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) is accelerating, partly due to declining planetary albedo from reduced cloud cover. Boreal afforestation can either mitigate or exacerbate this trend through competing biophysical feedbacks. While snow masking…
Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent…
We present a quantitative assessment of the impact of high-order mappings on the simulation of flows over complex orography. Curved boundaries were not used in early numerical methods, whereas they are employed to an increasing extent in…
We systematically validate the static local mesh refinement capabilities of a recently proposed IMEX-DG scheme implemented in the framework of the deal.II library. Non-conforming meshes are employed in atmospheric flow simulations to…
Through a series of experiments, we provide evidence that the GraphDOP model - trained solely on meteorological observations, using no prior knowledge - develops internal representations of the Earth System state, structure and dynamics as…
This paper describes the new Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 4 (SODA4) global eddy-resolving ocean/sea ice reanalysis that spans the 45-year period 1980-2024. The reanalysis is constructed using GFDL MOM5/SIS1 numerics and ECMWF ERA5…
To address the systematic underestimation of typhoon intensity in artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models, we propose the Intelligent Shanghai Typhoon Model (ISTM): a unified regional-to-typhoon generative probabilistic…
This report describes six demonstration cases of two numerical ocean wave models in high latitude regions where waves interact with sea ice. The two wave models are SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) and WW3 (WAVEWATCH III), run in uncoupled…
We identify a previously overlooked invariant governing planetary surface temperatures, expressed in terms of only two observables: solar irradiance and Bond albedo. The relation has universal applicability and accurately reproduces the…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal assets. However,…
The sea surface height budget, obtained by integrating hydrostatic balance over the water column, relates sea surface height variations to variations of the seafloor pressure, density in the water column, and atmospheric surface pressure.…
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to extrapolate and reliably forecast…
Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
This study examines Hurricane Lidia rapid intensification (RI) in the understudied northeastern Pacific, focusing on its interaction with an upper-level trough. Using IFS-ECMWF ensemble forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, we analyze the…
Forecasting from atmospheric soundings is a fundamental task in operational meteorology, often requiring structured visual reasoning over Skew-T log-P diagrams by human forecasters. While recent advances in Vision-Language Models (VLMs)…
Artificial intelligence has advanced global weather forecasting, outperforming traditional numerical models in both accuracy and computational efficiency. Nevertheless, extending predictions beyond subseasonal timescales requires the…
Cloud detection is essential for atmospheric retrievals, climate studies, and weather forecasting. We analyze infrared radiances from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard Meteorological Operational (MetOp)…
Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…
Parameterizing radiative transfer in means navigating trade-offs between physical accuracy and conceptual clarity. However, currently available schemes sit at the extremes of this spectrum: correlated-k schemes are fast and accurate but…