大气与海洋物理
Land-atmosphere coupling is an important process for correctly modelling near-surface temperature profiles, but it involves various uncertainties due to subgrid-scale processes, such as turbulent fluxes or unresolved surface…
In a warming climate with more frequent severe weather, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To realize this potential, there…
Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…
The dynamics of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are succinctly captured by the Recharge Oscillator (RO) framework. However, to simulate ENSO realistically, careful choices must be made regarding the RO's key parameters. In…
Small-scale gravity waves, with horizontal wavelengths of up to a few hundred kilometers and vertical wavelengths of up to a few kilometers, play a crucial role in atmospheric tracer transport. However, their effects remain unresolved in…
Lightning plays a crucial role in the Earth's climate system, yet existing parameterizations for use in forecasting and earth system models show room for improvement in capturing spatial and temporal variations in its frequency. This study…
The winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) modulates East Asian climate and the East/Japan Sea (EJS), yet local, scale-dependent air-sea couplings linking atmosphere, ocean and sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remain unclear. Using 30 years…
The coupling of weather, sea-ice, ocean, and wave forecasting systems has been a long-standing research focus to improve Arctic forecasting systems and their realism and is also a priority of international initiatives such as the WMO…
The winter climate of the East/Japan Sea (EJS) is strongly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), yet how AO polarity reshapes the memory, coupling patterns, and predictability of sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remains poorly…
Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for forecasting, risk assessment, and…
Accurately tracking the global distribution and evolution of precipitation is essential for both research and operational meteorology. Satellite observations remain the only means of achieving consistent, global-scale precipitation…
Thunderstorms have significant social and economic impacts due to heavy precipitation, hail, lightning, and strong winds, necessitating reliable forecasts. Thunderstorm forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) often rely on…
Root-mean-square error (RMSE) remains the default training loss for data-driven precipitation models, despite precipitation being semi-continuous, zero-inflated, strictly non-negative, and heavy-tailed. This Gaussian-implied objective…
Large variations of European storm activity at decadal and longer timescales have been found to be driven by major tropical volcanic eruptions, internal climate variability and anthropogenic aerosols (AA). The insurance industry have the…
The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…
It has been suggested that the upwelling branch of the abyssal overturning circulation is characterized by strong flows driven by turbulence along sloping topography. The Boundary Layer Turbulence field campaign has provided direct evidence…
We present an analysis of an adaptive time-stepping scheme for the Super-Droplet Method (SDM), a Monte Carlo algorithm for simulating particle coagulation. SDM represents cloud droplets as weighted superdroplets, enabling high-fidelity…
This is a reupload of an industry funded research project description from 2019. The project heavily relied upon the TINT is not Titan package (TINT, available at https://github.com/openradar/TINT). This document details the modifications…
In Australia, hailstorms present considerable public safety and economic risks, where they are considered the most damaging natural hazard in terms of annual insured losses. Despite these impacts, the current climatological distribution of…
The occurrence of some extreme events (such as marine heatwaves or exceptional circulations) can cause other extreme events (such as heatwave, drought and flood). These concurrent extreme events have a great impact on environment and human…