相关论文: A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…

Biological processes at the cellular level are stochastic in nature, and the immune response system is no different. Therefore, models that attempt to explain this system need to also incorporate noise or fluctuations that can account for…

Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of…

Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…

The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic…

We consider a stochastic model for a pathogen population in the presence of an immune response, in which pathogen types are partially ordered by ancestry and the immune system must eliminate ancestor types before it can eliminate their…

The rise of antimicrobial drug resistance is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of drug-resistant…

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Stochastic models of diffusion with excluded-volume effects are used to model many biological and physical systems at a discrete level. The average properties of the population may be described by a continuum model based on partial…

Conventional wisdom holds that influenza A and B are such genetically dissimilar viruses that infection with one cannot confer cross-immunity to the other. However, our examination of the records of the past 25 influenza seasons in the U.S.…

We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the…

We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…

We investigate the dynamics of a simple epidemiological model for the invasion by a pathogen strain of a population where another strain circulates. We assume that reinfection by the same strain is possible but occurs at a reduced rate due…

When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…

We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…

Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture…

Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…

In this paper we review the trajectory of a model proposed by Stauffer and Weisbuch in 1992 to describe the evolution of the immune repertoire and present new results about its dynamical behavior. Ten years later this model, which is based…