相关论文: A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

We propose a new multivariate time series model in which we assume that each component has a tendency to revert to the minimum of all components. Such a specification is useful to describe phenomena where each member in a population which…

The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the…

In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…

We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…

We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…

Viruses display striking diversity in structure, transmission mode, immune interaction, and evolutionary behavior. Despite this diversity, viral strategies are not unconstrained. Here we present a unifying framework that treats viral…

The Minority Game framework was recently generalized to account for the possibility that agents adapt not only through strategy selection but also by diversifying their response according to the kind of dynamical regime, or the risk, they…

Time varying susceptibility of host at individual level due to waning and boosting immunity is known to induce rich long-term behavior of disease transmission dynamics. Meanwhile, the impact of the time varying heterogeneity of host…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…

Epidemics have shaped human history, often with devastating consequences, motivating the development of mathematical models to understand and control their dynamics. Among the many aspects of epidemic behavior, the conditions that lead to…

In order to explore the impact of periodically evolving domain on the transmission of disease, we study a SIS reaction-diffusion model with logistic term on a periodically evolving domain. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is…

Understanding how genetic changes allow emerging virus strains to escape the protection afforded by vaccination is vital for the maintenance of effective vaccines. In the current work, we use structural and phylogenetic differences between…

The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…

The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an…

Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a…

I discuss the so-called stochastic individual based model of adaptive dynamics and in particular how different scaling limits can be obtained by taking limits of large populations, small mutation rate, and small effect of single mutations…

The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…

We consider the interplay of vaccination and migration rates on disease persistence in epidemiological systems. We show that short-term and long-term migration can inhibit disease persistence. As a result, we show how migration changes how…