相关论文: The El Nino Stochastic Oscillator
We study the impact of noise on a neural population rate model of up and down states. Up and down states are typically observed in neuronal networks as a slow oscillation, where the population switches between high and low firing rates…
We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…
Traffic flow oscillations, including traffic waves, are a common yet incompletely understood feature of congested traffic. Possible mechanisms include traffic flow instabilities, indifference regions or finite human perception thresholds…
Using a stochastic nonlinear phase oscillator model, we study the effect of event-triggered feedback on the statistics of interevent intervals. Events are associated with the entering of a new cycle. The feedback is modeled by an…
A method is developed to estimate the properties of a global hydrodynamic instability in turbulent flows from measurement data of the limit-cycle oscillations. For this purpose, the flow dynamics are separated in deterministic contributions…
Deterministic and stochastic coupled oscillators with inertia are studied on the rectangular lattice under the shear-velocity boundary condition. Our coupled oscillator model exhibits various nontrivial phenomena and there are various…
Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill at predicting the winter NAO index with their seasonal prediction system. At the same time, a very low signal-to-noise ratio was observed, as measured using the `ratio of…
Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. They have been used to get insights into the dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In…
Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…
Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,…
The effects of intrinsic noise on stochastic delay systems is studied within an expansion in the inverse system size. We show that the stochastic nature of the underlying dynamics may induce oscillatory behaviour in parameter ranges where…
Stochastic and coherence resonances appear in nonlinear systems subjected to an external source of noise and are characterized by a maximum response at the optimal value of the noise intensity. This paper shows experimentally that it is…
Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…
The dynamics of an ensemble of bistable elements with global time-delayed coupling under the influence of noise is studied analytically and numerically. Depending on the noise level the system undergoes ordering transitions and demonstrates…
Earth's climate stability, characterized by the global radiative feedback parameter ($\lambda$), varies decadally due to changing surface temperature patterns. Recent variations in $\lambda$ are poorly understood as coordinated model…
We investigate the effects of a time-correlated noise on an extended chaotic system. The chosen model is the Lorenz'96, a kind of toy model used for climate studies. The system is subjected to both temporal and spatiotemporal perturbations.…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…
Chemical reactions in cell are subject to intense stochastic fluctuations. An important question is how the fundamental physiological behavior of cell is kept stable against those noisy perturbations. In this paper a stochastic model of…
Period variability, quantified by the standard deviation (SD) of the cycle-to-cycle period, is investigated for noisy phase oscillators. We define the checkpoint phase as the beginning/end point of one oscillation cycle and derive an…
In many real world chaotic systems, the interest is typically in determining when the system will behave in an extreme manner. Flooding and drought, extreme heatwaves, large earthquakes, and large drops in the stock market are examples of…