相关论文: The El Nino Stochastic Oscillator
The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…
Frequency of warm and cold winters in the North Eurasian regions is analyzed from long-term data, depending on El Nino phenomena of different types. Frequencies of extremely warm and extremely cold winters for North Eurasian regions in…
The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits depends heavily on improving general circulation model based dynamical forecasting systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecast, it is crucial…
We present recent results on noise-induced transitions in a nonlinear oscillator with randomly modulated frequency. The presence of stochastic perturbations drastically alters the dynamical behaviour of the oscillator: noise can wash out a…
Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…
Vallis proposed a simple model for El-Nino weather phenomenon (referred as Vallis system) by adding an additional parameter p to the Lorenz system. He showed that the chaotic behavior of the Vallis system is related to the El-Nino effect.…
In recent years, numerical weather prediction models have begun to show notable levels of skill at predicting the average winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when initialised one month ahead. At the same time, these model predictions…
We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era…
The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a climatological signal, i.e. the El Nino SOI and the turbulent nature of the ocean-atmosphere variability are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
We consider classical nonlinear oscillators on hexagonal lattices. When the coupling between the elements is repulsive, we observe coexisting states, each one with its own basin of attraction. These states differ by their degree of…
We develop a framework for the general interpretation of the stochastic dynamical system near a limit cycle. Such quasi-periodic dynamics are commonly found in a variety of nonequilibrium systems, including the spontaneous oscillations of…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…
The influence of small random perturbations on a deterministic dynamical system with a locally stable equilibrium is considered. The perturbed system is described by the It\^{o} stochastic differential equation. It is assumed that the noise…
For self-sustained oscillators subject to noise the coherence, understood as a constancy of the instantaneous oscillation frequency, is one of the primary characteristics. The delayed feedback has been previously revealed to be an efficient…
We describe a stochastic variability mechanism which is genuinely internal to the ocean, i.e. not due to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. % The key ingredient is the existence of closed contours of bottom topography surrounded by a…
We study a system whose dynamics are governed by predictions of its future states. A general formalism and concrete examples are presented. We find that the dynamical characteristics depend on how to shape the predictions as well as on how…
Prior research has shown that autocorrelation and variance in voltage measurements tend to increase as power systems approach instability. This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which these statistical indicators provide reliable…