相关论文: The El Nino Stochastic Oscillator

Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…

We study an excitable active rotator with slowly adapting nonlinear feedback and noise. Depending on the adaptation and the noise level, this system may display noise-induced spiking, noise-perturbed oscillations, or stochastic busting. We…

This article studies stochastic relative phase stability, i.e., stochastic phase-cohesiveness, of discrete-time phase-coupled oscillators. Stochastic phase-cohesiveness in two types of networks is studied. First, we consider oscillators…

When an oscillator switches abruptly between different frequencies, there is some ambiguity in deciding how the system should be modelled at the switch. Here we describe two seemingly natural models of a switch in a simple…

The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…

In a statistical analysis of more than a century of data we find a strong connection between strong warm El Nino winter events and high spring precipitation in a band from Southern England eastwards into Asia. This relationship is an…

The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…

The relation between El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) perplexes the researchers. Probably, this is due to the default choice on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method whose outputs are merely…

We study stochastic perturbations of ODE with stable limit cycles -- referred to as stochastic oscillators -- and investigate the response of the asymptotic (in time) frequency of oscillations to changing noise amplitude. Unlike previous…

We propose a mechanism which produces periodic variations of the degree of predictability in dynamical systems. It is shown that even in the absence of noise when the control parameter changes periodically in time, below and above the…

We consider stochastic dynamical systems defined by differential equations with a uniform random time delay. The latter equations are shown to be equivalent to deterministic higher-order differential equations: for an $n$-th order equation…

The dynamics of a non-autonomous oscillator in which the phase and frequency of the external force depend on the dynamical variable is studied. Such a control of the phase and frequency of the external force leads to the appearance of…

Most of the existing prediction methods gave a false alarm regarding the El Ni\~no event in 2014. A crucial aspect is currently limiting the success of such predictions, i.e. the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate. This…

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been known to have a major impact on the development of El Ni\~no events. In particular, they amplify these events, with stronger events associated with a higher number of WWBs. We further find…

We quantify the effect of Gaussian white noise on fast--slow dynamical systems with one fast and two slow variables, which display mixed-mode oscillations owing to the presence of a folded-node singularity. The stochastic system can be…

We consider the influence of stochastic perturbations on stability of a unique positive equilibrium of a difference equation subject to prediction-based control. These perturbations may be multiplicative $$x_{n+1}=f(x_n)-\left( \alpha +…

A network of noisy bistable elements with global time-delayed couplings is considered. A dichotomous mean field model has recently been developed describing the collective dynamics in such systems with uniform time delays near the…

Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…

Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression…