相关论文: Updating Probabilities

Concept of exponential family is generalized by simple and general exponential form. Simple and general potential are introduced. Maximum Entropy and Maximum Likelihood tasks are defined. ML task on the simple exponential form and ME task…

Duda, Hart, and Nilsson have set forth a method for rule-based inference systems to use in updating the probabilities of hypotheses on the basis of multiple items of new evidence. Pednault, Zucker, and Muresan claimed to give conditions…

Independence-based (IB) assignments to Bayesian belief networks were originally proposed as abductive explanations. IB assignments assign fewer variables in abductive explanations than do schemes assigning values to all evidentially…

Modelling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model, and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding…

A way to pose the entropic uncertainty principle for trace-preserving super-operators is presented. It is based on the notion of extremal unraveling of a super-operator. For given input state, different effects of each unraveling result in…

Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) has been a successful approximate Bayesian inference framework since its proposal by Rue et al. (2009). The increased computational efficiency and accuracy when compared with sampling-based…

We introduce and characterize inertial updating of beliefs. Under inertial updating, a decision maker (DM) chooses a belief that minimizes the subjective distance between their prior belief and the set of beliefs consistent with the…

Multi-instance data, in which each object (bag) contains a collection of instances, are widespread in machine learning, computer vision, bioinformatics, signal processing, and social sciences. We present a maximum entropy (ME) framework for…

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive…

We propose a novel use of a recent new computational tool for Bayesian inference, namely the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology. ABC is a way to handle models for which the likelihood function may be intractable or even…

Given a knowledge base KB containing first-order and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the random-worlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula Phi holds given KB. If we are reasoning about a…

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete (or set-valued). This is a fundamental problem, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks.…

This paper presents a novel method for the automated synthesis of probabilistic programs. The starting point is a program sketch representing a finite family of finite-state Markov chains with related but distinct topologies, and a PCTL…

Observational entropy -- a quantity that unifies Boltzmann's entropy, Gibbs' entropy, von Neumann's macroscopic entropy, and the diagonal entropy -- has recently been argued to play a key role in a modern formulation of statistical…

Inference scaling helps LLMs solve complex reasoning problems through extended runtime computation. On top of long chain-of-thought (long-CoT) models, purely inference-time techniques such as best-of-N (BoN) sampling, majority voting, or…

Here we deconstruct, and then in a reasoned way reconstruct, the concept of "entropy of a system," paying particular attention to where the randomness may be coming from. We start with the core concept of entropy as a COUNT associated with…

We explore a method of statistical estimation called Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) which is based on an information-driven criterion that quantifies the compliance of a given point with a reference prior probability measure. At the core…

This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent…

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…