相关论文: Updating Probabilities

This paper contributes a novel embedding model which measures the probability of each belief $\langle h,r,t,m\rangle$ in a large-scale knowledge repository via simultaneously learning distributed representations for entities ($h$ and $t$),…

Modern machine learning embeddings provide powerful compression of high-dimensional data, yet they typically destroy the geometric structure required for classical likelihood-based statistical inference. This paper develops a rigorous…

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Maximum entropy principle (MEP) offers an effective and unbiased approach to inferring unknown probability distributions when faced with incomplete information, while neural networks provide the flexibility to learn complex distributions…

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

Identifying leading measurement units from a large collection is a common inference task in various domains of large-scale inference. Testing approaches, which measure evidence against a null hypothesis rather than effect magnitude, tend to…

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

The minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion has been successfully used in fields such as parameter estimation, system identification and the supervised machine learning. There is in general no explicit expression for the optimal MEE estimate…

Statistical information is ubiquitous but drawing valid conclusions from it is prohibitively hard. We explain how knowledge graph embeddings can be used to approximate probabilistic inference efficiently using the example of Statistical EL…

Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…

Integrative modeling of macromolecular assemblies allows for structural characterization of large assemblies that are recalcitrant to direct experimental observation. A Bayesian inference approach facilitates combining data from…

The authors derive likelihood-based exact inference methods for the multivariate regression model, for singly imputed synthetic data generated via Posterior Predictive Sampling (PPS) and for multiply imputed synthetic data generated via a…

A new combinatorial-probabilistic diagnostic entropy has been introduced. It describes the pair-wise sum of probabilities of system conditions that have to be distinguished during the diagnosing process. The proposed measure describes the…

We show that Abe's general pseudoadditivity for entropy prescribed by thermal equilibrium in nonextensive systems holds not only for entropy, but also for energy. The application of this general pseudoadditivity to Tsallis entropy tells us…

We describe $k$-MLE, a fast and efficient local search algorithm for learning finite statistical mixtures of exponential families such as Gaussian mixture models. Mixture models are traditionally learned using the expectation-maximization…

The following three sections and appendices are taken from my thesis "The Foundations of Inference and its Application to Fundamental Physics" from 2021, in which I construct a theory of entropic inference from first principles. The…

In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…

A key prerequisite to optimal reasoning under uncertainty in intelligent systems is to start with good class probability estimates. This paper improves on the current best probability estimation trees (Bagged-PETs) and also presents a new…

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Relative entropy is a fundamental class of distances between probability distributions, with widespread applications in probability theory, statistics, and machine learning. In this work, we study relative entropy from a categorical…