相关论文: Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

Probability estimation is one of the fundamental tasks in statistics and machine learning. However, standard methods for probability estimation on discrete objects do not handle object structure in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, we…

We describe algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of user knowledge and statistical data. The algorithms have two components: a scoring metric and a search procedure. The scoring metric takes a network structure,…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

Understanding the process by which a contagion disseminates throughout a network is of great importance in many real world applications. The required sophistication of the inference approach depends on the type of information we want to…

Critical infrastructure increasingly relies on interconnected cyber-physical systems whose security incidents can escalate rapidly into safety and operational failures. Existing decision-support approaches struggle to support real-time…

We introduce semiparametric Bayesian networks that combine parametric and nonparametric conditional probability distributions. Their aim is to incorporate the advantages of both components: the bounded complexity of parametric models and…

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

The systems that statisticians are asked to assess, such as nuclear weapons, infrastructure networks, supercomputer codes and munitions, have become increasingly complex. It is often costly to conduct full system tests. As such, we present…

Quantification is well known to be a major obstacle in the construction of a probabilistic network, especially when relying on human experts for this purpose. The construction of a qualitative probabilistic network has been proposed as an…

This paper addresses the problem of community detection in networked data that combines link and content analysis. Most existing work combines link and content information by a generative model. There are two major shortcomings with the…

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…

For the diagnostic inference under uncertainty Bayesian networks are investigated. The method is based on an adequate uniform representation of the necessary knowledge. This includes both generic and experience-based specific knowledge,…

Data sets are growing in complexity thanks to the increasing facilities we have nowadays to both generate and store data. This poses many challenges to machine learning that are leading to the proposal of new methods and paradigms, in order…

In this work, we propose a Bayesian statistical model to simultaneously characterize two or more social networks defined over a common set of actors. The key feature of the model is a hierarchical prior distribution that allows us to…

We propose a novel Bayesian methodology which uses random walks for rapid inference of statistical properties of undirected networks with weighted or unweighted edges. Our formalism yields high-accuracy estimates of the probability…

In public opinion studies, the relationships between opinions on different topics are likely to shift based on the characteristics of the respondents. Thus, understanding the complexities of public opinion requires methods that can account…

Subgroup analysis is a frequently used tool for evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effect and heterogeneity in treatment harm across observed baseline patient characteristics. While treatment efficacy and adverse event measures are often…

Network interference occurs when treatments assigned to some units affect the outcomes of others. Traditional approaches often assume that the observed network correctly specifies the interference structure. However, in practice,…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…