相关论文: Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal profiles of subjects commonly follow a…

Thanks to the increasing growth of computational power and data availability, the research in machine learning has advanced with tremendous rapidity. Nowadays, the majority of automatic decision making systems are based on data. However, it…

After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Robust analysis of coauthorship networks is based on high quality data. However, ground-truth data are usually unavailable. Empirical data suffer several types of errors, a typical one of which is called merging error, identifying different…

Structure and parameters in a Bayesian network uniquely specify the probability distribution of the modeled domain. The locality of both structure and probabilistic information are the great benefits of Bayesian networks and require the…

On roads showing significant violations of posted speed limits, one measure of the safety effect of speeding is the difference between the road's actual accident count and the count that would have occurred if the posted speed limit had…

This paper introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and then reminds the reader of a simple Monte Carlo…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Requirements Engineering (RE) is a means to reduce the risk of delivering a product that does not fulfill the stakeholders' needs. Therefore, a major challenge in RE is to decide how much RE is needed and what RE methods to apply. The…

Contagion processes are strongly linked to the network structures on which they propagate, and learning these structures is essential for understanding and intervention on complex network processes such as epidemics and (mis)information…

Federated learning makes it possible to train a machine learning model on decentralized data. Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that have been widely used in artificial intelligence applications. Their popularity stems…

Most empirical studies of networks assume that the network data we are given represent a complete and accurate picture of the nodes and edges in the system of interest, but in real-world situations this is rarely the case. More often the…

This paper proposes a new general approach based on Bayesian networks to model the human behaviour. This approach represents human behaviour with probabilistic cause-effect relations based on knowledge, but also with conditional…

Cyber risk classifications are widely used in the modeling of cyber event distributions, yet their effectiveness in out of sample forecasting performance remains underexplored. In this paper, we analyse the most commonly used…

The emergence of online enterprises spread across continents have given rise to the need for expert identification in this domain. Scenarios that includes the intention of the employer to find tacit expertise and knowledge of an employee…

This work initiates a systematic investigation of testing high-dimensional structured distributions by focusing on testing Bayesian networks -- the prototypical family of directed graphical models. A Bayesian network is defined by a…

Bayesian network structure learning algorithms with limited data are being used in domains such as systems biology and neuroscience to gain insight into the underlying processes that produce observed data. Learning reliable networks from…