相关论文: Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

Network data are increasingly collected along with other variables of interest. Our motivation is drawn from neurophysiology studies measuring brain connectivity networks for a sample of individuals along with their membership to a low or…

The increasing complexity of cascading risks in urban systems necessitates robust, data-driven frameworks to model interdependencies across multiple domains. This study presents a foundational Bayesian network-based approach for analyzing…

The paper suggests methods to the assessment of information risks, which makes the transition from a qualitative assessment of information risks (according to the factor analysis of information risks methodology) to a quantitative…

Assessing variability according to distinct factors in data is a fundamental technique of statistics. The method commonly regarded to as analysis of variance (ANOVA) is, however, typically confined to the case where all levels of a factor…

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often…

The present article is focused on the problem of prediction of student failures with the purpose of their possible prevention by timely introducing supportive measures. We propose a concept for building a predictive model based on Bayesian…

Economic evaluations from individual-level data are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. A critical problem in these analyses is that both effectiveness and…

Meta-analysis is a statistical method used in evidence synthesis for combining, analyzing and summarizing studies that have the same target endpoint and aims to derive a pooled quantitative estimate using fixed and random effects models or…

Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a…

To make decisions we are guided by the evidence we collect, as well as the opinions of friends and neighbors. How do we integrate our private beliefs with information we obtain from our social network? To understand the strategies humans…

A Bayesian net (BN) is more than a succinct way to encode a probabilistic distribution; it also corresponds to a function used to answer queries. A BN can therefore be evaluated by the accuracy of the answers it returns. Many algorithms for…

Network intrusion detection is the process of identifying malicious behaviors that target a network and its resources. Current systems implementing intrusion detection processes observe traffic at several data collecting points in the…

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a…

Most empirical studies of complex networks do not return direct, error-free measurements of network structure. Instead, they typically rely on indirect measurements that are often error-prone and unreliable. A fundamental problem in…

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…

A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…

Cybersecurity threats are increasingly marked by interdependence, uncertainty, and evolving complexity challenges that traditional assessment methods such as CVSS, STRIDE, and attack trees fail to adequately capture. This paper reviews the…

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

Because of the threat of advanced multi-step attacks, it is often difficult for security operators to completely cover all vulnerabilities when deploying remediations. Deploying sensors to monitor attacks exploiting residual vulnerabilities…