相关论文: Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

Bayesian networks are a class of models that are widely used for risk assessment of complex operational systems. There are now multiple approaches, as well as implemented software, that guide their construction via data learning or expert…

The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature…

In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…

Cybersecurity risk analysis plays an essential role in supporting organizations make effective decision about how to manage and control cybersecurity risk. Cybersecurity risk is a function of the interplay between the defender, i.e., the…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Product risk assessment is the overall process of determining whether a product, which could be anything from a type of washing machine to a type of teddy bear, is judged safe for consumers to use. There are several methods used for product…

Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought…

An accurate qualitative and comprehensive assessment of human potential is one of the most important challenges in any company or collective. We apply Bayesian networks for developing more accurate overall estimations of psychological…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

The estimation of Bayesian networks given high-dimensional data, in particular gene expression data, has been the focus of much recent research. Whilst there are several methods available for the estimation of such networks, these typically…

We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…

To investigate intervention effects on rare events, meta-analysis techniques are commonly applied in order to assess the accumulated evidence. When it comes to adverse effects in clinical trials, these are often most adequately handled…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Bayesian sociality models provide a scalable and flexible alternative for network analysis, capturing degree heterogeneity through actor-specific parameters while mitigating the identifiability challenges of latent space models. This paper…

We develop a structural default model for interconnected financial institutions in a probabilistic framework. For all possible network structures we characterize the joint default distribution of the system using Bayesian network…

A vulnerability scan combined with information about a computer network can be used to create an attack graph, a model of how the elements of a network could be used in an attack to reach specific states or goals in the network. These…

A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…

Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach…

When eliciting probability models from experts, knowledge engineers may compare the results of the model with expert judgment on test scenarios, then adjust model parameters to bring the behavior of the model more in line with the expert's…