相关论文: Bayesian Comparison of GARCH Processes with Skewne…

Preferential Bayesian optimisation (PBO) deals with optimisation problems where the objective function can only be accessed via preference judgments, such as "this is better than that" between two candidate solutions (like in A/B tests or…

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

Regression models for dichotomous data are ubiquitous in statistics. Besides being useful for inference on binary responses, these methods serve also as building blocks in more complex formulations, such as density regression, nonparametric…

A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is a powerful tool for analyzing nonlinear multivariate time series, which includes special cases like self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In…

In inference problems involving a multi-dimensional parameter $\theta$, it is often natural to consider decision rules that have a risk which is invariant under some group $G$ of permutations of $\theta$. We show that this implies that the…

We consider the sparse contextual bandit problem where arm feature affects reward through the inner product of sparse parameters. Recent studies have developed sparsity-agnostic algorithms based on the greedy arm selection policy. However,…

In this paper, we introduce a new single model maneuvering target tracking approach using stochastic differential equation (SDE) based on GARCH volatility. The traditional input estimation (IE) techniques assume constant acceleration level…

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

Conditions for geometric ergodicity of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes, with the so-called BEKK (Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner) parametrization, are considered. We show for a class of BEKK-ARCH…

Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…

We consider the problem of learning the underlying causal structure among a set of variables, which are assumed to follow a Bayesian network or, more specifically, a linear recursive structural equation model (SEM) with the associated…

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…

Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…

Meta-learning has proven to be successful for few-shot learning across the regression, classification, and reinforcement learning paradigms. Recent approaches have adopted Bayesian interpretations to improve gradient-based meta-learners by…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…