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We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-11-07 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Massimiliano Marcellino , Nico Petz

Large random matrices appear in different fields of mathematics and physics such as combinatorics, probability theory, statistics, operator theory, number theory, quantum field theory, string theory etc... In the last ten years, they…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Alice Guionnet

This is a comment on arXiv:2202.01553. In regression Gaussian covariate p-values (Davies and D{\"u}mbgen, arXiv:2202.01553) are used to control greedy forward subset selection by accounting for choosing the best when fitting many variables.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Joe Whittaker

Since survival data occur over time, often important covariates that we wish to consider also change over time. Such covariates are referred as time-dependent covariates. Quantile regression offers flexible modeling of survival data by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-05-01 Malka Gorfine , Yair Goldberg , Yaacov Ritov

Using random matrix technique we determine an exact relation between the eigenvalue spectrum of the covariance matrix and of its estimator. This relation can be used in practice to compute eigenvalue invariants of the covariance…

统计力学 · 物理学 2010-01-15 Z. Burda , A. Goerlich , A. Jarosz , J. Jurkiewicz

Gaussian graphical models are parametric statistical models for jointly normal random variables whose dependence structure is determined by a graph. In previous work, we introduced trek separation, which gives a necessary and sufficient…

组合数学 · 数学 2012-10-02 Jan Draisma , Seth Sullivant , Kelli Talaska

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

We show that the operatorial framework developed by Voiculescu for free random variables can be extended to arrays of random variables whose multiplication imitates matricial multiplication. The associated notion of independence, called…

算子代数 · 数学 2010-05-28 Romuald Lenczewski

The estimation of large covariance matrices has a high dimensional bias. Correcting for this bias can be reformulated via the tool of Free Probability Theory as a free deconvolution. The goal of this work is a computational and statistical…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-10 Reda Chhaibi , Fabrice Gamboa , Slim Kammoun , Mauricio Velasco

Gaussian random fields with Mat\'ern covariance functions are popular models in spatial statistics and machine learning. In this work, we develop a spatio-temporal extension of the Gaussian Mat\'ern fields formulated as solutions to a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-06 Finn Lindgren , Haakon Bakka , David Bolin , Elias Krainski , Håvard Rue

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-10-09 Duo Zhang , Jiayu Li , Junyi Mo , Elynn Chen

Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-08-07 Donald R. Williams , Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari , Philippe Rast

Modeling and forecasting covariance matrices of asset returns play a crucial role in finance. The availability of high frequency intraday data enables the modeling of the realized covariance matrix directly. However, most models in the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-04-15 Keren Shen , Jianfeng Yao , Wai Keung Li

Addressing selection bias in latent variable causal discovery is important yet underexplored, largely due to a lack of suitable statistical tools: While various tools beyond basic conditional independencies have been developed to handle…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-15 Haoyue Dai , Yiwen Qiu , Ignavier Ng , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

In order to illustrate the adaptation of traditional continuum numerical techniques to the study of complex network systems, we use the equation-free framework to analyze a dynamically evolving multigraph. This approach is based on coupling…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2016-11-03 Alexander Holiday , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

We establish a large deviation principle for the empirical spectral measure of a sample covariance matrix with sub-Gaussian entries, which extends Bordenave and Caputo's result for Wigner matrices having the same type of entries [7]. To…

概率论 · 数学 2015-05-22 Benjamin Groux

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-09-27 James Hensman , Nicolo Fusi , Neil D. Lawrence

Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-18 Kunal Rai , Archi Roy , Itai Dattner , Soudeep Deb

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-11-10 Dani Yogatama , Bryan R. Routledge , Noah A. Smith