相关论文: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …

Identifying tropical cyclones that generate destructive storm tides for risk assessment, such as from large downscaled storm catalogs for climate studies, is often intractable because it entails many expensive Monte Carlo hydrodynamic…

Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…

The main goal of this article is to introduce new quantitative characteristics of cycles in finite simple connected graphs and to establish relations of these characteristics with the stretch and spanning tree congestion of graphs. The main…

We propose a generic model of eco-systems, with a {\it hierarchical} food web structure. In our computer simulations we let the eco-system evolve continuously for so long that that we can monitor extinctions as well as speciations over…

Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…

As a complement to experimental and theoretical approaches, numerical modeling has become an important component to study asteroid collisions and impact processes. In the last decade, there have been significant advances in both…

Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…

Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a…

A most important aspect in the field of traffic modeling is the simulation of bottleneck situations. For their realistic description a macroscopic multi-lane model for uni-directional freeways including acceleration, deceleration, velocity…

I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking…

This study introduces a novel torus-to-torus regression framework to improve the analysis and prediction of cyclone-driven wind-wave directional dynamics. This research, to our knowledge, establishes a mathematical framework for modeling…

Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…

Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…

The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although…

This is the third part of a series of studies that model the target trajectory, which describes the target state evolution over continuous time, as a sample path of a stochastic process (SP). By adopting a deterministic-stochastic…

Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…

A birth-death lattice gas model about the influence of an environment on the fitness and concentration evolution of economic entities is analytically examined. The model can be mapped onto a high order logistic map. The control parameter is…

We introduce and study a special class of ideals, called tropical ideals, in the semiring of tropical polynomials, with the goal of developing a useful and solid algebraic foundation for tropical geometry. The class of tropical ideals…