相关论文: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
We suggest systems mining as the next step after process mining. Systems mining starts with a more careful investigation of runs, and constructs a detailed model of behavior, more subtle than classical process mining. The resulting model is…
Multiple Sclerosis is a degenerative condition of the central nervous system that affects nearly 2.5 million of individuals in terms of their physical, cognitive, psychological and social capabilities. Researchers are currently…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
A relaxation in the tropical sandpile model is a process of deforming a tropical hypersurface towards a finite collection of points. We show that, in the one-dimensional case, a relaxation terminates after a finite number of steps. We…
Statistical properties of evolving random graphs are analyzed using kinetic theory. Treating the linking process dynamically, structural characteristics such as links, paths, cycles, and components are obtained analytically using the rate…
In this paper we study algorithmic aspects of tropical intersection theory. We analyse how divisors and intersection products on tropical cycles can actually be computed using polyhedral geometry. The main focus of this paper is the study…
Cycling is a green transportation mode, and is promoted by many governments to mitigate traffic congestion. However, studies concerning the traffic dynamics of bicycle flow are very limited. This study experimentally investigated bicycle…
We give a framework for constructing generically optimal homotopies for parametrized polynomial systems from tropical data. Here, generically optimal means that the number of paths tracked is equal to the generic number of solutions. We…
Understanding the behaviour of biological systems requires a complex setting of in vitro and in vivo experiments, which attracts high costs in terms of time and resources. The use of mathematical models allows researchers to perform…
Dynamical models will be key to exploitation of the incoming flood data for our Galaxy. Modelling techniques are reviewed with an emphasis on f(J) modelling.
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…
We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…
Bicycle traffic operations become increasingly important and yet are largely ignored in the traffic flow community, until recently. We hypothesize that there is no qualitative difference between vehicular and bicycle traffic flow dynamics,…
A novel combination of data analysis techniques is proposed for the reconstruction of all tracks of primary charged particles, as well as of daughters of displaced vertices (decays, photon conversions, nuclear interactions), created in high…
Because geostationary satellite (Geo) imagery provides a high temporal resolution window into tropical cyclone (TC) behavior, we investigate the viability of its application to short-term probabilistic forecasts of TC convective structure…
We have provided a concise introduction to the Ising model as one of the most important models in statistical mechanics and in studying the phenomenon of phase transition. The required theoretical background and derivation of the…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
We present a new method for creating a model consensus to improve real-time hurricane track prediction. The method is based on the statistical fitting of historic numerical model track forecasts to the observed storm positions and learning…
In the present paper a review and numerical comparison of a special class of multi-phase traffic theories based on microscopic, kinetic and macroscopic traffic models is given. Macroscopic traffic equations with multi-valued fundamental…
A dynamic model for failures in biological organisms is proposed and studied both analytically and numerically. Each cell in the organism becomes dead under sufficiently strong stress, and is then allowed to be healed with some probability.…