相关论文: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
One of the themes that have been approached more and more within the specialised literature is being represented by economic cycles. The analysis of these is very useful in the long term predictions, in finding solutions for the economic…
We discuss the relevance of studying ecology within the framework of Complexity Science from a statistical mechanics approach. Ecology is concerned with understanding how systems level properties emerge out of the multitude of interactions…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
It is well known that rapid changes in tropical cyclone motion occur during interaction with extratropical waves. While the translation speed has received much attention in the published literature, acceleration has not. Using a large data…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…
This second paper of the series (see the first one in [1]) models the dynamics and structure of upper hurricane layer in adiabatic approximation. Formulation of simplified aerodynamic model allows analytically express the radial…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is critical for disaster warning and emergency response. Deep learning methods address computational challenges but often neglect physical relationships between TC attributes, resulting in predictions…
We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…
Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take…
The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value.…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are counted among the most destructive phenomena that can be found in nature. Every year, globally an average of 90 TCs occur over tropical waters, and global warming is making them stronger, larger and more…
Mediterranean cyclones are extreme meteorological events of which much less is known compared to their tropical, oceanic counterparts. The raising interest in such phenomena is due to their impact on a region increasingly more affected by…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
We consider the basic features of complex dynamic and control systems, including systems having hierarchical structure. Special attention is paid to the problems of design and synthesis of complex systems and control models, and to the…
Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…