相关论文: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been…
TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity. To allow a fair and model-agnostic comparison, TCBench builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and…
The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…
Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused…
Many studies investigated the application of statistical mechanics to damage phenomena. However, so far the association of damage with statistical mechanics is far from completely developed. One of the most successful approaches maps the…
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) remains challenging due to limited satellite observations probing TC structure and difficulties in resolving cloud properties involved in TC intensification. Recent research has demonstrated…
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly dynamic natural disasters that travel vast distances and occupy a large spatial scale, leading to loss of life, economic strife, and destruction of infrastructure. The severe impact of TCs makes them…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…
Tropical cyclone wind-intensity prediction is a challenging task considering drastic changes climate patterns over the last few decades. In order to develop robust prediction models, one needs to consider different characteristics of…
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…