相关论文: A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern inform…

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…

Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue…

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

Efficient simulation is essential for enhancing proactive preparedness for sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) as world models show promise in simulating complex scenarios. This…

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible…

This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of…

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…

A recently proposed method of constructing seismic networks from 'record breaking events' from the earthquake catalog of California (Phy. Rev. E, 77 6,066104, 2008) was successfull in establishing causal features to seismicity and arrive at…

Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we…

Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…

Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where…

We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…

This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…

Migration-based earthquake location methods may encounter the polarity reversal issue due to the non-explosive components of seismic source, leading to an unfocused migration image. Various methods have been proposed, yet producing an…

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…