相关论文: Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold mode…

The effect of disorder in the energetic heights and in the physical locations of fence barriers encountered by transmembrane molecules such as proteins and lipids in their motion in cell membranes is studied theoretically. The investigation…

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

Discrete event sequences serve as models for numerous real-world datasets, including publications over time, project milestones, and medication dosing during patient treatments. These event sequences typically exhibit bursty behavior, where…

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix…

A class of models is introduced describing the evolution of population species whose carrying capacities are functionals of these populations. The functional dependence of the carrying capacities reflects the fact that the correlations…

A phenomenological model for a measurement of barrier traversal times for particles is proposed. Two idealized detectors for passage and arrival provide entrance and exit times for the barrier traversal. The averaged traversal time is…

This paper is concerned with modeling the dynamics of social outbursts of activity, such as protests or rioting activity. In this sequel to our work in \cite{Berestycki2014}, written in collaboration with J-P. Nadal, we model the effect of…

Bursty dynamics characterizes systems that evolve through short active periods of several events, which are separated by long periods of inactivity. Systems with such temporal heterogeneities are not only found in nature but also include…

It is generally believed that more observations provide more information. However, we observe that in the independence test for rare events, the power of the test is, surprisingly, determined by the number of rare events rather than the…

Epidemiological models are an important tool in coping with epidemics, as they offer a forecast, even if often simplistic, of the behavior of the disease in the population. This allows responsible health agencies to organize themselves and…

This article introduces a modeling framework to characterize evacuee response to environmental stimuli during emergency egress. The model is developed in consistency with stress theory, which explains how an organism reacts to environmental…

The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…

Human interactions and mobility shape epidemic dynamics by facilitating disease outbreaks and their spatial spread across regions. Traditional models often isolate commuting and random mobility as separate behaviors, focusing either on…

We consider the problem of efficient patrolling strategy adaptation in a changing environment where the topology of Defender's moves and the importance of guarded targets change unpredictably. The Defender must instantly switch to a new…

The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of the…

People organize in groups and contagions spread across them. A simple stochastic process, yet complex to model due to dynamical correlations within and between groups. Moreover, groups can evolve if agents join or leave in response to…

We extend the scope of the dynamical theory of extreme values to cover phenomena that do not happen instantaneously, but evolve over a finite, albeit unknown at the onset, time interval. We consider complex dynamical systems, composed of…

Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…

The distribution of return intervals of extreme events is studied in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it has been analyzed the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values…

We propose a novel frailty model with change points applying random effects to a Cox proportional hazard model to adjust the heterogeneity between clusters. Because the frailty model includes random effects, the parameters are estimated…