相关论文: From old wars to new wars and global terrorism
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from reporting bias. Since the UCDP has strict inclusion criteria,…
Terrorist attacks all across the world have become a major source of concern for almost all national governments. The United States Department of State's Bureau of Counter-Terrorism, maintains a list of 66 terrorist organizations spanning…
The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of…
It is well known that random multiplicative processes generate power-law probability distributions. We study how the spatio-temporal correlation of the multipliers influences the power-law exponent. We investigate two sources of the time…
Large-scale trends in urban crime and global terrorism are well-predicted by socio-economic drivers, but focused, event-level predictions have had limited success. Standard machine learning approaches are promising, but lack…
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network…
A range of early studies have been conducted to illustrate human mobility patterns using different tracking data, such as dollar notes, cell phones and taxicabs. Here, we explore human mobility patterns based on massive tracking data of US…
When a dangerous international crisis begins, leaders need to know whether their next move is going to resolve the dispute or amplify it out of control. Theories of conflict have mainly served to deepen the confusion, revealing fighting,…
Increasing integration and availability of data on large groups of persons has been accompanied by proliferation of statistical and other algorithmic prediction tools in banking, insurance, marketiNg, medicine, and other FIelds (see e.g.,…
The rapid spread of radical ideologies in recent years has led to a worldwide string of terrorist attacks. Understanding how extremist tendencies germinate, develop, and drive individuals to action is important from a cultural standpoint,…
In many data scientific problems, we are interested in inferring causal relationships in the data generating mechanism. Here, we consider the following real-world question: how has the Colombian conflict influenced tropical forest loss?…
The events of 9/11 brought an increased focus on security in the United States and specifically the protection of critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure encompasses a wide array of critical assets such as the electric power grid,…
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is a dominant insurgent group operating in Iraq and Syria that rose to prominence when it took over Mosul in June, 2014. In this paper, we present a data-driven approach to analyzing this group…
Pareto's law states that the distribution of personal income obeys a power-law in the high-income range, and has been supported by international observations. Researchers have proposed models over a century since its discovery. However, the…
We present the data on wealth and income distributions in the United Kingdom, as well as on the income distributions in the individual states of the USA. In all of these data, we find that the great majority of population is described by an…
We prove the efficiency of a new method for the detection of crucial events that might have useful applications to the war against terrorism. This has to do with the search for rare but significant events, a theme of research that has been…
We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in [PLoS ONE 7, e40393 (2012)] for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present…
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…
More than one billion data sampled with different frequencies from several financial instruments were investigated with the aim of testing whether they involve power law. As a result, a known power law with the power exponent around -4 was…
Twenty-two significant bubbles followed by large crashes or by severe corrections in the Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan, Hong-Kong, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, Philippine and Thai stock markets indices are…