相关论文: On collective non-gaussian dependence patterns in …

In this paper we present an interacting-agent model of stock markets. We describe a stock market through an Ising-like model in order to formulate the tendency of traders getting to be influenced by the other traders' investment attitudes…

In a traditional Gaussian graphical model, data homogeneity is routinely assumed with no extra variables affecting the conditional independence. In modern genomic datasets, there is an abundance of auxiliary information, which often gets…

We present two statistical causes for the distortion of correlations on high-frequency financial data. We demonstrate that the asynchrony of trades as well as the decimalization of stock prices has a large impact on the decline of the…

Evolution is simultaneously driven by a number of processes such as mutation, competition and random sampling. Understanding which of these processes is dominating the collective evolutionary dynamics in dependence on system properties is a…

This paper outlines an agent-based model of a simple financial market in which a single asset is available for trade by three different types of traders. The model was first introduced in the PhD thesis of one of the authors, see reference…

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in log normalized returns, the…

We describe a simple and accurate framework for modeling the statistical behavior of both fully developed turbulence and short-term dynamics of financial markets based on the formalism of Tsallis' generalized non-extensive thermostatistics.…

We consider the setting where a collection of time series, modeled as random processes, evolve in a causal manner, and one is interested in learning the graph governing the relationships of these processes. A special case of wide interest…

We develop a framework especially suited to the autocorrelation properties observed in financial times series, by borrowing from the physical picture of turbulence. The success of our approach as applied to high frequency foreign exchange…

In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks…

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

Modelling growth in student achievement is a significant challenge in the field of education. Understanding how interventions or experiences such as part-time work can influence this growth is also important. Traditional methods like…

Recently, to account for low-frequency market dynamics, several volatility models, employing high-frequency financial data, have been developed. However, in financial markets, we often observe that financial volatility processes depend on…

We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and…

This paper examines a heterogeneous beliefs model in which there is a process that is only partially observed by the agents. The economy contains a risky asset producing dividends continuously in time. The dividends are observed by the…

The behavior of stock market returns over a period of 1-60 days has been investigated for S&P 500 and Nasdaq within the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. Even for such long terms, the distributions of the returns are…

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

We consider the problem of option pricing and hedging when stock returns are correlated in time. Within a quadratic-risk minimisation scheme, we obtain a general formula, valid for weakly correlated non-Gaussian processes. We show that for…

We develop a testing procedure for distinguishing between a long-range dependent time series and a weakly dependent time series with change-points in the mean. In the simplest case, under the null hypothesis the time series is weakly…