相关论文: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly…

We consider the problem of estimating the incidence of residential burglaries that occur over a well-defined period of time within the 10 most populous cities in North Carolina. Our analysis typifies some of the general issues that arise in…

We calculate measures of economic complexity for US metropolitan areas for the years 2007-2015 based on industry employment data. We show that the concept of economic complexity translates well from the cross-country to the regional…

We propose a straightforward extension of our previously proposed log-periodic power law model of the ``anti-bubble'' regime of the USA market since the summer of 2000, in terms of the renormalization group framework to model critical…

Urban scaling laws summarize how urban attributes evolve with city size. Recent criticism questions notably the aggregate view of this approach, which leads to neglecting the internal structure of cities. This is all the more relevant for…

We summarize recent work on the consistent calculation of bubble-nucleation rates. Our approach is based on the notion of a real coarse-grained potential. The bubble-nucleation rate is calculated through an expansion around the…

Geographic diversification is fundamental to risk mitigation among investors and insurers of housing, mortgages, and mortgage-related derivatives. To characterize diversification potential, we provide estimates of integration, spatial…

Recent developments in cosmology suggest that much of the universe is in a state of explosive, accelerated expansion, called inflation. We live in a "bubble" where inflation has ended, and other bubbles with diverse properties are…

We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential…

In recent years, real estate industry has captured government and public attention around the world. The factors influencing the prices of real estate are diversified and complex. However, due to the limitations and one-sidedness of their…

A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age…

We propose constructing confidence sets for the emergence, collapse, and recovery dates of a bubble separately by inverting tests for the location of the break date. We examine both likelihood ratio-type tests and the Elliott-Muller-type…

Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understand the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a…

The process of urbanization is one of the most important phenomenon of our societies and it is only recently that the availability of massive amounts of geolocalized historical data allows us to address quantitatively some of its features.…

This work analyzes data on all public US firms in the 50 year period 1970-2019, and presents 18 stylized facts of their scale, income, growth, return, investment, and dynamism. Special attention is given to (i) identifying distributional…

This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order…

Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the…

What causes house prices to rise and fall? Economists identify household access to credit as a crucial factor. "Loan-to-Value" and "Debt-to-GDP" ratios are the standard measures for credit access. However, these measures fail to explain the…

In the United States, large post-industrial cites such as Detroit are well-known for high levels of socioeconomic deprivation. But while Detroit is an exceptional case, similar levels of deprivation can still be found in other large cities,…

Despite the rapid growth of cities in the past century, our quantitative, in-depth understanding of how cities grow remains limited due to a consistent lack of historical data. Thus, the scaling laws between a city's features and its…