相关论文: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential,…

In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US…

We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure…

Housing markets play a crucial role in economies and the collapse of a real-estate bubble usually destabilizes the financial system and causes economic recessions. We investigate the systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the US…

First, we emphasize that the real estate price peaks which are currently under way in many industrialized countries (one important exception is Japan) share many of the characteristics of previous historical price peaks. In particular, we…

Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this…

As baby boomers have begun to downsize and retire, their preferences now overlap with millennials' predilection for urban amenities and smaller living spaces. This confluence in tastes between the two largest age segments of the U.S.…

We analyze how equilibrium housing prices are determined in the process of economic development within an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We characterize the rent growth rate in all equilibria. The…

We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble…

There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two…

House price increases have been steady over much of the last 40 years, but there have been occasional declines, most notably in the recent housing bust that started around 2007, on the heels of the preceding housing bubble. We introduce a…

Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a…

The US housing market exhibits pronounced seasonal cycles: prices and sales rise through spring, peak in summer, and decline through autumn and winter. Since 2021, this pattern has shifted earlier in the calendar year, with spring…

I studied the convergence of regional house prices to national prices in USA by analyzing time-series of house price indices of 9 Census Divisions. I found the evidence of the convergence in some parts of the country using asymmetric unit…

We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative…

We exploit a city-level panel comprised of individual house price estimates to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on both small and big real-estate markets in California USA. Descriptive analysis of spot house price estimates, including…

Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this…

Recently research on bubble and its burst attract much interest of researchers in various field such as economics and physics. Economists have been regarding bubble as a disorder in prices. However, this research strategy has overlooked an…

We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a…

In this paper we investigate quantitatively statistical properties of ensemble of {\it land prices} in Japan in the period from 1981 to 2002, corresponding to the period of bubbles and crashes. We find that the tail of the distributions of…