相关论文: Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minima…

The safety and resilience of civil infrastructure systems are increasingly threatened by compounded risks from various hazard events and structural deterioration due to environmental stressors. This study presents a comprehensive…

Earthquakes cause lasting changes in static equilibrium, resulting in global deformation fields that can be observed. Consequently, deformation measurements such as those provided by satellite based InSAR monitoring can be used to infer an…

Two different way of assessing seismic vulnerability are available nowadays: observed or empirical and calculated vulnerability assessment methods. The first methods are based on observed damage after earthquakes correlated with the…

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

In order to clarify how the statistical properties of earthquakes depend on the constitutive law characterizing the stick-slip dynamics, we make an extensive numerical simulation of the one-dimensional spring-block model with the rate- and…

We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson,…

Scientists mapped the seismic time series into networks by considering the geographical location of events as nodes and establishing links between the nodes with different rules. Applying the successive defined laws to construct the…

A web application prototype is described, aimed at the generation of synthetic seismograms for user-defined earthquake models. The web application graphical user interface hides the complexity of the underlying computational engine, which…

We study loss functions that measure the accuracy of a prediction based on multiple data points simultaneously. To our knowledge, such loss functions have not been studied before in the area of property elicitation or in machine learning…

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…

The one-dimensional forest-fire model including lightnings is studied numerically and analytically. For the tree correlation function, a new correlation length with critical exponent \nu ~ 5/6 is found by simulations. A Hamiltonian…

An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…

We numerically investigate the Olami-Feder-Christensen model for earthquakes in order to characterise its scaling behaviour. We show that ordinary finite size scaling in the model is violated due to global, system wide events. Nevertheless…

Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

Random and structured noise both affect seismic data, hiding the reflections of interest (primaries) that carry meaningful geophysical interpretation. When the structured noise is composed of multiple reflections, its adaptive cancellation…

A general dynamical cluster identification framework including both modeling and computation is developed. The earthquake declustering problem is studied to demonstrate how this framework applies. A stochastic model is proposed for…

In this paper, we investigate earthquake-induced landslides using a geostatistical model that includes a latent spatial effect (LSE). The LSE represents the spatially structured residuals in the data, which are complementary to the…

Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold $m_d$) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching…

The long-term erosion of steep landscapes is punctuated by dramatic erosional events that can remove significant amount of sediments within a time-scale shorter than a seismic cycle. However, the role of such large erosional events on…

Visualization is an essential operation when assessing the risk of rare events such as coastal or river floodings. The goal is to display a few prototype events that best represent the probability law of the observed phenomenon, a task…