相关论文: Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minima…
Insurance risk arising from catastrophes such as earthquakes a component of the Minimum Capital Test for federally regulated property and casualty insurance companies. Analyzing earthquake insurance risk requires well-fitted spatio-temporal…
Post-earthquake hazard and impact estimation are critical for effective disaster response, yet current approaches face significant limitations. Traditional models employ fixed parameters regardless of geographical context, misrepresenting…
Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where…
Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction…
The study of a machine learning problem is in many ways is difficult to separate from the study of the loss function being used. One avenue of inquiry has been to look at these loss functions in terms of their properties as scoring rules…
Machine learning (ML) catalogs contain many more earthquakes than routine catalogs, but their performance in phase picking and earthquake detection has not been fully evaluated. We develop station-level detection probabilities using…
The earthquake-like model with a continuous distribution of static thresholds is used to describe the properties of solid friction. The evolution of the model is reduced to a master equation which can be solved analytically. This approach…
We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box…
This study revisits the modeling of seismic fragility curves by applying ordinal regression models, offering an alternative to the commonly used log-normal distribution function. It compares various ordinal regression approaches, including…
For seismic analysis in engineering structures, it is essential to consider the dynamic responses under seismic excitation, necessitating the description of seismic accelerations. Limit seismics samples lead to incomplete uncertainty…
Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like…
Two novel methods, one that is experimental and the other comprising a pair of theoretical types (one component that is mathematically rigorous and the other that is of frequency domain computational type), are being used in concert to…
We evaluate the forecasting performance of a deep learning model, originally introduced as a pattern-extraction framework, that operates on the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic b-values in a short-term forecasting context. Model output…
We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…
We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…
Short-term earthquake clustering is one of the most important features of seismicity. Clusters are identified using various techniques, generally deterministic and based on spatio-temporal windowing. Conversely, the leading rail in…
Limit analysis is a computationally efficient tool to assess the resistance and the failure mode of structures but does not provide any information on the displacement capacity, which is one of the concepts which most affects the seismic…
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
We propose and study a modified version of the Olami-Feder-Christiensen model of seismicity, that includes a mechanism of structural relaxation. We obtain realistic features of seismicity that are not obtained with the original version,…