相关论文: Confidence Limits and their Robustness

Using the techniques of [arXiv:0911.4271], upper bounds for a given confidence level are modified in an optimal fashion to incorporate the a priori information that the parameter being estimated is non-negative. A paradox with different…

Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…

Prediction credibility measures, in the form of confidence intervals or probability distributions, are fundamental in statistics and machine learning to characterize model robustness, detect out-of-distribution samples (outliers), and…

In statistical physics lately a specific kind of average, called the q-expectation value, has been extensively used in the context of q-generalized statistics dealing with distributions following power-laws. In this context q-expectation…

Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…

To demarcate the limits of experimental knowledge we probe the limits of what might be called an experiment. By appeal to examples of scientific practice from astrophysics and analogue gravity, we demonstrate that the reliability of…

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

Some large scale inference problems are considered based on using the relative belief ratio as a measure of statistical evidence. This approach is applied to the multiple testing problem. A particular application of this is concerned with…

Statistical limits are defined relaxing conditions on conventional convergence. The main idea of the statistical convergence of a sequence l is that the majority of elements from l converge and we do not care what is going on with other…

I present a critical review of techniques for estimating confidence intervals on binomial population proportions inferred from success counts in small-to-intermediate samples. Population proportions arise frequently as quantities of…

Intuitively, unfamiliarity should lead to lack of confidence. In reality, current algorithms often make highly confident yet wrong predictions when faced with relevant but unfamiliar examples. A classifier we trained to recognize gender is…

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

Coherent lower previsions are general probabilistic models allowing incompletely specified probability distributions. However, for complete description of a coherent lower prevision -- even on finite underlying sample spaces -- an infinite…

I discuss recent developments in the determination of parton distributions from global fits. I concentrate on the errors associated with these parton distributions and with the physical quantities which are determined in terms of them. I…

Particle physics experiments use likelihood ratio tests extensively to compare hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. Often, the null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic is approximated by a $\chi^2$ distribution,…

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

Introductory texts on statistics typically only cover the classical "two sigma" confidence interval for the mean value and do not describe methods to obtain confidence intervals for other estimators. The present technical report fills this…

Robust estimation is much more challenging in high dimensions than it is in one dimension: Most techniques either lead to intractable optimization problems or estimators that can tolerate only a tiny fraction of errors. Recent work in…

The ultimate bound to the accuracy of phase estimates is often assumed to be given by the Heisenberg limit. Recent work seemed to indicate that this bound can be violated, yielding measurements with much higher accuracy than was previously…

This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…