相关论文: Confidence Limits and their Robustness

This note uses a simple example to show how moment inequality models used in the empirical economics literature lead to general minimax relative efficiency comparisons. The main point is that such models involve inference on a low…

We construct honest confidence regions for a Hilbert space-valued parameter in various statistical models. The confidence sets can be centered at arbitrary adaptive estimators, and have diameter which adapts optimally to a given selection…

A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

We consider the problem of comparing two diagnostic tests based on a sample of paired test results without true state determinations, in cases where the second test can reasonably be assumed to be at least as specific as the first. For such…

To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood…

Confidence intervals are assessed according to two criteria, namely expected length and coverage probability. In an attempt to apply the decision-theoretic method to finding a good confidence interval, a loss function that is a linear…

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

We present an extension to the robust phase estimation protocol, which can identify incorrect results that would otherwise lie outside the expected statistical range. Robust phase estimation is increasingly a method of choice for…

In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the…

In this article we present very intuitive, easy to follow, yet mathematically rigorous, approach to the so called data fitting process. Rather than minimizing the distance between measured and simulated data points, we prefer to find such…

The study of associations and their causal explanations is a central research activity whose methodology varies tremendously across fields. Even within specialized subfields, comparisons across textbooks and journals reveals that the basics…

With the passage of more time from the original date of publication, the measure of the impact of scientific works using subsequent citation counts becomes more accurate. However the measurement of individual and organizational research…

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Robust statistics aims to compute quantities to represent data where a fraction of it may be arbitrarily corrupted. The most essential statistic is the mean, and in recent years, there has been a flurry of theoretical advancement for…

We introduce probability estimation, a broadly applicable framework to certify randomness in a finite sequence of measurement results without assuming that these results are independent and identically distributed. Probability estimation…

In most prediction and estimation situations, scientists consider various statistical models for the same problem, and naturally want to select amongst the best. Hansen et al. (2011) provide a powerful solution to this problem by the…

Confidence measures for the generalization error are crucial when small training samples are used to construct classifiers. A common approach is to estimate the generalization error by resampling and then assume the resampled estimator…

Consistent belief functions represent collections of coherent or non-contradictory pieces of evidence, but most of all they are the counterparts of consistent knowledge bases in belief calculus. The use of consistent transformations cs[.]…

We study how to perform tests on samples of pairs of observations and predictions in order to assess whether or not the predictions are prudent. Prudence requires that that the mean of the difference of the observation-prediction pairs can…