相关论文: Confidence Limits and their Robustness

Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of…

Concentration inequalities have become increasingly popular in machine learning, probability, and statistical research. Using concentration inequalities, one can construct confidence intervals (CIs) for many quantities of interest.…

Matching algorithms are commonly used to predict matches between items in a collection. For example, in 1:1 face verification, a matching algorithm predicts whether two face images depict the same person. Accurately assessing the…

Quantum state tomography is the task of inferring the state of a quantum system by appropriate measurements. Since the frequency distributions of the outcomes of any finite number of measurements will generally deviate from their asymptotic…

We provide analytic formulas for the standard error and confidence intervals for the F measures, based on a property of asymptotic normality in the large sample limit. The formula can be applied for sample size planning in order to achieve…

Confidence intervals (CIs) are instrumental in statistical analysis, providing a range estimate of the parameters. In modern statistics, selective inference is common, where only certain parameters are highlighted. However, this selective…

In this paper we propose a procedure to evaluate Bayesian confidence intervals in counting experiments where both signal and background fluctuations are described by the Poisson statistics. The results obtained when the method is applied to…

We propose using a Bayes procedure with uniform improper prior to determine credible belts for the mean of a Poisson distribution in the presence of background and for the continuous problem of measuring a non-negative quantity $\theta$…

We prove a central limit theorem for a sequence of random variables whose means are ambiguous and vary in an unstructured way. Their joint distribution is described by a set of measures. The limit is (not the normal distribution and is)…

Tests based on heteroskedasticity robust standard errors are an important technique in econometric practice. Choosing the right critical value, however, is not simple at all: conventional critical values based on asymptotics often lead to…

Probabilistic metrology attempts to improve parameter estimation by occasionally reporting an excellent estimate and the rest of the time either guessing or doing nothing at all. Here we show that probabilistic metrology can never improve…

The original frequentist approach for computing confidence intervals involves the construction of the confidence belt which provides a mapping of the observation in data into a subset of values for the parameter. There are different…

This paper concerns the construction of confidence intervals in standard seroprevalence surveys. In particular, we discuss methods for constructing confidence intervals for the proportion of individuals in a population infected with a…

Confidence sequences are confidence intervals that can be sequentially tracked, and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. This paper presents confidence sequences for a univariate mean of an unknown distribution with a known…

In this paper, we provide a general methodology to draw statistical inferences on individual signal coordinates or linear combinations of them in sparse phase retrieval. Given an initial estimator for the targeting parameter (some simple…

A common, though not recommended statistical practice is to report confidence intervals if and only if they exclude a null value of 0. The resulting filtered confidence intervals generally do not have their nominal confidence level. More…

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Measurement error is a pervasive issue which renders the results of an analysis unreliable. The measurement error literature contains numerous correction techniques, which can be broadly divided into those which aim to produce exactly…

Analysis of experimental data must sometimes deal with abrupt changes in the distribution of measured values. Setting upper limits on signals usually involves a veto procedure that excludes data not described by an assumed statistical…