相关论文: A comparison of statistical models for short categ…

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Many analyses of resource-allocation problems employ simplistic models of the population. Using the example of a resource-allocation problem of Marecek et al. [arXiv:1406.7639], we introduce rather a general behavioural model, where the…

The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…

We consider a stochastic individual based model where each predator searches during a random time and then manipulates its prey or rests. The time distributions may be non-exponential. An age structure allows to describe these interactions…

We derive a linear recursion relation for the species abundance distribution in a statistical model of ecology and demonstrate the existence of a scaling solution.

In binary and ordinal regression one can distinguish between a location component and a scaling component. While the former determines the location within the range of the response categories, the scaling indicates variance heterogeneity.…

Observing a stationary time series, we propose a two-step procedure for the prediction of the next value of the time series. The first step follows machine learning theory paradigm and consists in determining a set of possible predictors as…

Linear quantile regression models aim at providing a detailed and robust picture of the (conditional) response distribution as function of a set of observed covariates. Longitudinal data represent an interesting field of application of such…

In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…

To study population dynamics, ecologists and wildlife biologists use relative abundance data, which are often subject to temporal preferential sampling. Temporal preferential sampling occurs when sampling effort varies across time. To…

This paper extends the class of ordinal regression models with a structured interpretation of the problem by applying a novel treatment of encoded labels. The net effect of this is to transform the underlying problem from an ordinal…

The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…

We introduce a new methodology to analyze the evolution of epidemic time series, which is based on the construction of epidemic networks. First, we translate the time series into ordinal patterns containing information about local…

In this paper we investigate the use of staged tree models for discrete longitudinal data. Staged trees are a type of probabilistic graphical model for finite sample space processes. They are a natural fit for longitudinal data because a…

The paper proposes to analyze epidemiological data using regression models which enable subject-matter (epidemiological) interpretation of such data whether with uncorrelated or correlated predictors. To this end, response functions should…

We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the…

The machine learning community has recently devoted much attention to the problem of inferring causal relationships from statistical data. Most of this work has focused on uncovering connections among scalar random variables. We generalize…

This paper investigates the influence of environmental noise on the characteristic timescale of the dynamics of density-dependent populations. General results are obtained on the statistics of time spent in rarity and time spent in…

Compared to the nominal scale, the ordinal scale for a categorical outcome variable has the property of making a monotonicity assumption for the covariate effects meaningful. This assumption is encoded in the commonly used proportional odds…