相关论文: The Cox Theorem: Unknowns And Plausible Value

There are multiple proposed interpretations of probability theory: one such interpretation is true-false logic under uncertainty. Cox's Theorem is a representation theorem that states, under a certain set of axioms describing the meaning of…

The assumptions needed to prove Cox's Theorem are discussed and examined. Various sets of assumptions under which a Cox-style theorem can be proved are provided, although all are rather strong and, arguably, not natural.

The probability axioms by R. T. Cox can be regarded as the modern foundations of Bayesian inference, the idea of assigning degrees of belief to logical propositions in a manner consistent with Boolean logic. In this work it is shown that…

We consider the question of extending propositional logic to a logic of plausible reasoning, and posit four requirements that any such extension should satisfy. Each is a requirement that some property of classical propositional logic be…

Some criticisms that have been raised against the Cox approach to probability theory are addressed. Should we use a single real number to measure a degree of rational belief? Can beliefs be compared? Are the Cox axioms obvious? Are there…

We present and examine a result related to uncertainty reasoning, namely that a certain plausibility space of Cox's type can be uniquely embedded in a minimal ordered field. This, although a purely mathematical result, can be claimed to…

This paper presents a plausible reasoning system to illustrate some broad issues in knowledge representation: dualities between different reasoning forms, the difficulty of unifying complementary reasoning styles, and the approximate nature…

Cox's well-known theorem justifying the use of probability is shown not to hold in finite domains. The counterexample also suggests that Cox's assumptions are insufficient to prove the result even in infinite domains. The same…

A number of well-known theorems, such as Cox's theorem and de Finetti's theorem. prove that any model of reasoning with uncertain information that satisfies specified conditions of "rationality" must satisfy the axioms of probability…

The effect of Richard T. Cox's contribution to probability theory was to generalize Boolean implication among logical statements to degrees of implication, which are manipulated using rules derived from consistency with Boolean algebra.…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

Plausible reasoning concerns situations whose inherent lack of precision is not quantified; that is, there are no degrees or levels of precision, and hence no use of numbers like probabilities. A hopefully comprehensive set of principles…

In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…

We introduce a new approach to modeling uncertainty based on plausibility measures. This approach is easily seen to generalize other approaches to modeling uncertainty, such as probability measures, belief functions, and possibility…

We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability…

Previous derivations of the sum and product rules of probability theory relied on the algebraic properties of Boolean logic. Here they are derived within a more general framework based on lattice theory. The result is a new foundation of…

Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

The language of probability is used to define several different types of conditional statements. There are four principal types: subjunctive, material, existential, and feasibility. Two further types of conditionals are defined using the…

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…

Expectation is a central notion in probability theory. The notion of expectation also makes sense for other notions of uncertainty. We introduce a propositional logic for reasoning about expectation, where the semantics depends on the…