相关论文: Continuous-time GARCH processes

Through sequential construction of posteriors on observing data online, Bayes' theorem provides a natural framework for continual learning. We develop Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Processes (VAR-GPs), a principled posterior updating…

For a strictly stationary sequence of $\mathbb{R}_{+}^{d}$--valued random vectors we derive functional convergence of partial maxima stochastic processes under joint regular variation and weak dependence conditions. The limit process is an…

Stochastic processes are proposed whose master equations coincide with classical wave, telegraph, and Klein-Gordon equations. Similar to predecessors based on the Goldstein-Kac telegraph process, the model describes the motion of particles…

This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…

We consider an RCAR$(p)$ process and we establish that the standard estimation lacks consistency as soon as there exists a nonzero serial correlation in the coefficients. We give the correct asymptotic behavior and some simulations come to…

This paper defines the class of $\mathcal{H}$-valued autoregressive (AR) processes with a unit root of finite type, where $\mathcal{H}$ is an infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space, and derives a generalization of the Granger-Johansen…

This article introduces the GNAR package, which fits, predicts, and simulates from a powerful new class of generalised network autoregressive processes. Such processes consist of a multivariate time series along with a real, or inferred,…

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

We discuss joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of random-coefficient AR(1) process driven by i.i.d. innovations in the domain of normal attraction of an $\alpha$-stable distribution, $0< \alpha \le 2$,…

We define a new type of self-similarity for one-parameter families of stochastic processes, which applies to a number of important families of processes that are not self-similar in the conventional sense. This includes a new class of…

HYGARCH process is the commonly used long memory process in modeling the long-rang dependence in volatility. Financial time series are characterized by transition between phases of different volatility levels. The smooth transition HYGARCH…

We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the…

A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…

We consider a general honest homogeneous continuous-time Markov process with restarts. The process is forced to restart from a given distribution at time moments generated by an independent Poisson process. The motivation to study such…

We study the time evolution of velocity and pressure gradients in isotropic turbulence, by quantifying their decorrelation time scales as one follows fluid particles in the flow. The Lagrangian analysis uses data in a public database…

We consider a class of vector autoregressive models with banded coefficient matrices. The setting represents a type of sparse structure for high-dimensional time series, though the implied autocovariance matrices are not banded. The…

We consider some fractional extensions of the recursive differential equation governing the Poisson process, by introducing combinations of different fractional time-derivatives. We show that the so-called "Generalized Mittag-Leffler…

In this paper, we propose two important measures, quantile correlation (QCOR) and quantile partial correlation (QPCOR). We then apply them to quantile autoregressive (QAR) models, and introduce two valuable quantities, the quantile…

Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…

Various functional limit theorems for partial sum processes of strictly stationary sequences of regularly varying random variables in the space of cadlag functions $D[0,1]$ with one of the Skorohod topologies have already been obtained. The…